We're No. 69! Golden Bears Edition

The Atlantic Coast Conference is in the midst of a bounce-back season in the national hoops landscape. After landing only four teams in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the lowest percentage of league representation since the tournament expanded in 1985, the conference is forecast to get eight or nine teams into this year’s 68-team field. 

Top-ranked Duke leads the way, followed by tournament “locks” Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville, as well as Clemson, N.C. State and Miami. SMU is close to solidifying an invite, which leaves Virginia Tech and Cal-Berkeley battling for a possible eighth at-large berth – or both left out, depending on results in other tournaments. 

The Golden Bears have by far the sketchier resume’, so unless they win their final two regular season games and make a deep run in the ACC Tournament, they’re likely to be among the “First Four Out” on Selection Sunday – a worthy/unworthy No. 69. Cal and Stanford and SMU came aboard the ACC two years ago in a marriage of inconvenience following the implosion of the Pac-12 and raids by the Big Ten Conference and later the Big 12. Cal and Stanford were basically set adrift, coincidentally, at the same time the ACC’s viability was in question amid realignment. Rather than see what might arise from the ashes of the Pac-12, Stanford and Cal chose a more stable, major conference path with the ACC, albeit 2,500 miles away. The new arrangement has made for some hellacious travel and challenging schedules, but everyone is copacetic – for now. 

Recent history: Cal made the NCAAs nine times in the early part of this century but hasn’t been to the tournament since 2016 and hasn’t played in postseason since 2017. The Golden Bears endured eight consecutive years of losing records until this season. Third-year coach Mark Madsen, a former Stanford star and NBA champ with the Lakers, rebuilt the program through the transfer portal and guided the Bears to their first 20-win season since 2017. Former coaches Ben Braun and Mike Montgomery regularly had the Bears in the NCAAs from the 1990s through the early 2010s. Legendary coach Pete Newell took Cal to the 1959 NCAA championship. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Golden Bears originated in 1895, when the school’s successful track team toured Midwestern and Eastern colleges. The team hung a blue banner with a golden grizzly bear, the state symbol, at meets, and the school’s teams came to be known as Golden Bears. The practice of using live bear cubs as mascots was discontinued in the 1940s, and a stuffed bear mascot named Oski was introduced. Oski the mascot was suspended for two weeks in 1990 after he threw cake at Oregon State fans, inadvertently hitting the father of Oregon State guard Gary Payton. 

Home arena: Haas Pavilion (cap. 11,858) is an on-campus arena originally opened in 1939 that underwent several renovations, most recently in the late ‘90s. It’s named for Walter Haas Jr., former president and CEO of Levi Strauss who donated $11 million toward the upgrade. 

Notable hoops alumni: Jason Kidd, Kevin Johnson, Jaylen Brown, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Leon Powe, Lamond Murray, Tony Gonzalez (the Hall of Fame tight end played hoops at Cal in the early ‘90s). 

Current season: The Golden Bears (20-9, 8-8 ACC) are tied for eighth in the league with SMU and Florida State. Their four top scorers are all new to the program through the transfer portal, led by 6-2 junior Dai Dai Ames (16.4 ppg) from Virginia, 6-3 sophomore Justin Pippen (14.7 ppg) from Michigan, 6-8 junior John Camden (14.2 ppg) from Delaware and 6-7 senior Chris Bell (13.6 ppg) from Syracuse. They’re middle of the pack in the ACC on offense and defense and near the bottom in rebound margin. 

Reasons to believe: Limited. Twenty wins in a marquee league are notable. Respectable 6-8 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Madsen has done a nice job assimilating a transfer-heavy roster. Cal is third in the conference in 3-point shooting and fourth in defending the 3. 

Reasons to fade them: Numerous. As of early March, the Bears were No. 64 in NET rankings, generally well outside the consideration zone. SMU, with whom they’re tied and recently beat head-to-head, is No. 35. Even Virginia Tech, a game back in the conference race, is No. 55. Part of the ratings discrepancy is the Bears’ dreadful non-conference strength of schedule, rated No. 328 by analytics guru Ken Pomeroy. Cal also did itself no favors last weekend with a gruesome, barely competitive loss at home to low-rated Pittsburgh. At the very least, Cal must beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest this week to close out the regular season and find some mojo in the ACC Tournament.

We're No. 69! San Diego State Edition

A college basketball program with a rich, recent postseason history that currently sits among the top three in a respected league normally wouldn’t have to worry about its NCAA Tournament status. That is, if the team was a member of a Power Four conference or the Big East. Leagues outside the Favored Five, however, often find themselves scrambling to get extra teams into the 68-team field. 

Which brings us to San Diego State. The Aztecs have been regular NCAA participants over the past two decades, even making the 2023 national championship game, where they lost to UConn. Depending on whose prospective bracket you look at, SDS is either just in or just out of the field, and the consensus is that they “have work to do.” 

2026 Pac 12 Tournament bracket

The Aztecs are a member of the Mountain West Conference, which has been well represented in the tournament in recent years – at least three at-large bids in each of the last four tournaments. Though bracketology gerbils seem to think league presence will be light when the field is announced next month in its last lap before a realignment exodus (more on that in a moment). San Diego State doesn’t have a gaudy record, owing to a challenging schedule and an underclass-heavy roster, though veteran coach Brian Dutcher has a deep and athletic group that defends typically well and can score at a high level. NCAA Net rankings and advanced analytics have SDS in the mid-40s, squarely on the bubble. 

The Aztecs head into the home stretch seeking their 17th Mountain West title before they and four other MW schools bolt for the Pac-12 this summer. The Pac-12 imploded a couple years ago after raids and exits for the Big Ten and Big 12 and was left with only Washington State and Oregon State. The reconstituted Pac-12 will include five former Mountain West schools and national hoops power Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference. 

Recent history: Fourteen NCAA Tournament appearances since 2002, with four trips to the Sweet 16 and the ’23 national title game. Their best team might have been 2019-20, when they went 30-2 but the pandemic scuttled the NCAA Tournament. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Students chose the Aztec nickname in 1925, and its mascot is an Aztec warrior formerly known as “Monty Montezuma,” whose name was retired because it was deemed racist and culturally insensitive. Puzzlement is understandable in wondering how and why a school in southern California chose a nickname from an indigenous society located 1,440 miles away in central Mexico conquered by the Spanish some 400 years earlier, when plenty of other, closer options were available. The Aztec nickname and representation have been debated on campus throughout the 21st century, but faculty and student groups ultimately chose to retain it with various tweaks and education programs. 

Home arena: Viejas Arena (cap. 12,414) is located on campus and opened in 1997. A couple years after its opening, the Viejas Band of Kumeyaay Indians entered into a naming rights agreement with the school, and it’s been known as Viejas Arena ever since. The Aztecs are particularly stout at home, going 103-12 in their last 115 home games and are 147-24 at home (.860) since the start of the 2015-16 season. 

Notable hoops alumni: Kawhi Leonard, Tony Gwynn (yep, *that* Tony Gwynn; baseball HoF’er was an all-conference hoops player at SDS and still holds single-season and career records for assists), Michael Cage, Keshad Johnson (Miami), Malachi Flynn (3 NBA teams, Turkey), Jalen McDaniel (4 NBA teams), Jamaal Franklin (2 NBA teams, China). 

Aztec on the left, Buff on the
right. They grew up doing
gymnastics together. And now
a blog post brings them
together. Small world.

Current season: Aztecs (18-8, 12-4 Mountain West) are tied for second in the league with New Mexico, a game behind Utah State. Ten players average between five and 12.6 points per game, led by 6-5 senior Reese Dixon-Waters (12.6 ppg) and 6-6 junior Miles Byrd (10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg), and eleven players average double-figure minutes. Through mid-February, the Aztecs were third in the nation in bench scoring at 36.6 ppg. Stats guru Ken Pomeroy has SDS leading the Mountain West in defensive efficiency, two-point FG defense, turnover percentage, steal and block percentage, and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage defense, and among the top 35 in the country in all those categories. 

Reasons to believe: Among the best strength-of-schedule ratings in the nation outside the Bigfoot conferences. A respectable 6-7 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. No bad losses, though a November loss to Troy (No. 142) is a blemish. Chances to bolster their argument against Utah State Wednesday at home and fellow bubble resident New Mexico on Saturday. Dutcher (216-76 in nine years) is excellent. 

Reasons to fade them: Not enough wins and dwindling opportunities – only four more regular season games and at most three conference tournament games. An untimely dip that’s seen them lose their last two, though Dutcher’s teams have lost three straight only once, in his first season. The Mountain West is only eighth in conference RPI, and bracket types believe they’ll get two teams at most. Utah State is likely safely in because of its profile, and New Mexico has a slightly better statistical case than the Aztecs. It would behoove the Aztecs to close at least 3-1 and make the conference semis.

We're No. 69! Rams Edition

Less than a month until NCAA Selection Sunday, so the final push for teams to bolster their cases for inclusion and to prevent the entire Southeastern Conference from en masse invitation. Compelling cases abound for the 68-team field among programs from marquee leagues and so-called mid-majors. 

 

Personally, I have a soft spot for teams from lower rated leagues that excel over middle-of-the-pack teams in blue blood conferences that possess numerous structural and financial advantages already. Reward teams that enjoy outsized success, rather than brand name programs that benefit from the neighborhood in which they reside (looking at you, Georgia and Nebraska, among others). 

With that in mind, several bracketology noodlers have VCU (that’s Virginia Commonwealth University, for the Mid-Atlantic impaired) among the first four teams omitted, which means that the Rams can still play their way into the tournament, either by winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament and earning the league’s automatic bid, or stockpiling wins as the season winds down and presenting the selection committee with a convincing case for one of the 37 at-large bids (Correction: in a previous post, I mistakenly wrote that the field is comprised of 32 conference champs and 36 at-large bids; I forgot that the demise of the Pac-12 removed one league champ and thus added an at-large berth. Management regrets the error). 

Let’s dig into the Rams. 

Recent History: Pretty fair, for a program outside the Power Conferences. The Rams have made the NCAA Tournament 13 times since 2004 and have won at least 20 games seventeen times in that span, under six different coaches. VCU famously made the Final Four in 2011 under Shaka Smart as a member of the Colonial (now Coastal) Athletic Association, advancing from the First Four and upsetting Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. Their .712 winning percentage in conference play since joining the A10 in 2012 is the league’s best. 

Mascot/Nickname Profile: Rodney the Ram originated in 1963 under the Richmond Professional Institute and replaced an early mascot known as the Green Devil. RPI merged with the Medical College of Virginia in 1968, after which the school changed colors to the current black and gold. 

Home Arena: E.J. Wade Arena at the Stuart Siegel Center, often referred to as The Stu, downtown Richmond (cap. 7,637). Darn fine small arena. School’s pep band is a banger and contributes greatly to excellent gameday experience. Legit homecourt advantage. 

Notable Hoops Alumni: Bones Hyland, Vince Williams Jr., Kendrick Warren, Eric Maynor, Larry Sanders (no, not that one), Briante’ Weber, Treveon Graham, Mo Alie-Cox, an athletic marvel who after a college career as a rebounding and shot-blocking monster neatly transitioned to pro football and became a tight end with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Recent photo of 
Briante' Weber

Current Season: Rams are 20-5 overall, 10-2 in A10, in second place behind George Mason, under second-year head coach Ryan Odom, son of longtime Wake Forest coach Dave Odom and who played for former William and Mary head mustache Tony Shaver at Hampden-Sydney. You might recall that Odom, who replaced Mike Rhoades, was head coach at UMBC in 2018, when the Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1, blasting Virginia in the first round of the NCAAs. 

Reason to Believe: Rams are a veteran bunch with size and depth, and they defend the starch out of opponents. Six of their top seven are grad students or seniors, led by 6-4 guard Joe Bamisile (15.8 ppg) and 6-5 Max Shulga (15.1 ppg, team-high 97 assists). They are top-25 nationally in defensive efficiency, top-10 in effective field goal percentage defense. They’re among the national leaders in blocked shots and opponent turnover rate at more than 20 percent. VCU is No. 32 in Ken Pomeroy’s team rankings and No. 34 in NCAA Net Rankings, as of last weekend. They average better than nine 3-pointers per game. 

Reason to Fade Them: Little room for error. The Rams’ non-conference strength of schedule (301) doesn’t help the cause. The A10 is rated only sixth or seventh among conferences, with VCU and Mason the only teams among the top 70 in NCAA Net Rankings. Losses from here on are more likely to hurt its statistical profile more than wins will benefit. The Rams get their lone crack at Mason on Feb. 22 and finish the regular season vs. Dayton on March 7, both at home, in what are their best chances to enhance the resume’ before the conference tournament. If VCU can reach 26 or 27 wins, even without winning the A10 Tournament, it might be enough to sneak in, provided there are few at-large bid thiefs come March.