Deceased Nag and Cudgel Alert: NCAA Edition

Demonstrating once again that nothing will be left alone if privileged people think they benefit from change, the NCAA is in the process of finalizing one of the worst ideas in sports: expansion of the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. 

According to reports, the field in both events will increase to 76 teams next season, up from the current 68. Details must be worked out and rubber stamps inked and thumped, but the meat of it is that there will be eight play-in games rather than four, and the winners will advance to the regular Goldilocks field of 64 for the tournaments’ opening weekend. 

Understand that this isn’t about increased opportunities or more of a good thing, it’s power conferences exerting control over as many areas as they see fit, and a mostly neutered NCAA attempting to remain relevant, or at least not be further kneecapped by said conferences. Longtime ESPN snoop Pete Thamel wrote that tournament expansion is driven by the power conferences wanting more at-large bids for their teams. Because clearly, eight or ten or twelve teams from a league aren’t enough. Certainly, an extra low- or mid-major team with an exceptional record will make the expanded field, but it’s a safe bet for anyone but Brendan Sorsby (too soon? [ED: Never!]) that six or seven of the new eight at-larges will be from the Bigfoot conferences. 

Thamel also wrote that expanded tournaments aren’t expected to provide a financial windfall for the NCAA and member schools, but sources said there would be profits. No, he wasn’t talking about Fan Duel and Draft Kings. Decide for yourself if it’s mere coincidence that NCAA officials and media partners are negotiating a new deal, whose current terms pre-dated the present bloat and conference demands for even more elbow room at the trough. 

I’ve written previously about tournament expansion and the notion that it’s football, not basketball, that moved the needle. The Big Ten and SEC became 18- and 16-team mega-conferences, respectively, and capitalized on massive financial deals for football, forcing the ACC and Big 12 to follow suit or get left behind (raise a glass for the late, lamented Pac-12). In turn, that meant five or six teams from a league getting into the basketball tournament went from reasonable representation, percentage-wise, to underserved in their estimation. 

Advocates for tournament expansion cite examples such as Texas advancing from the play-in rounds to the regional semifinal this past March as proof that power conference schools deserve greater representation. I’d argue the opposite. Where was that Longhorns’ team the previous three months? They finished tenth in the SEC. I maintain that no team that doesn’t finish in the top half of its league merits an invitation to play for a natty. Alas, that’s not the way it flies today, when P4 leagues, particularly the Big Ten and SEC, understandably equate resources with clout. 

No small number of power conference coaches favor expansion, as well, reasoning that NCAA berths help with job security. I might argue that an expanded, diluted NCAA field may not provide the shield they think (see: Davis, Hubert, turfed by North Carolina despite four NCAA appearances in his five seasons; and Barnes, Rick, canned at Texas in 2015 despite 16 NCAA trips in 17 seasons). In the present landscape, administrators and Big Checkbooks may not be satisfied with mere invitations to the party; they will want results in the form of deep runs and hardware. But those will be campus taffy pulls. In the grand scheme, we will get a format that few people want with several more undeserving entrants packaged as an upgrade, all because those with their hands on the levers will never let a potential advantage go to waste. Way of the world.

The Demise of Cinderella

Upheaval within college sports has created all manner of change for both participants and observers, not the least of which is a quantum leap in billable hours. Attorneys and entire firms have profited from those who contend that capitalist practices should extend to those who do the work regardless of their age, as well as from those who dug in their heels behind the thought: How come we can’t do it the way we’ve always done it? 

Conference realignment and consolidation, player pay and unrestricted movement, and Indiana University football ascension were always going to be jarring and difficult to grasp, not to mention expensive. But once colleges accepted television money to broadcast games and that money grew into multi-billion-dollar contracts and eight-figure payouts, it would inevitably lead to somewhere close to where we are now. 

Though on balance the developments are good, or at least more equitable, for the labor force, i.e., athletes, there would in turn be fallout that altered perspective and fandom and perhaps even the attraction of a team, a sport or an event. Which brings us to the NCAA Tournament and the gradual demise of the lower-tier conference program that makes a surprise run. 

The tournament nearly always ends up as a showcase of the sport’s best and most talented teams, but one of its beauties has been unlikely runs by programs outside the national spotlight: George Mason to the Final Four in 2006, Davidson and Steph Curry to the Elite Eight in 2008, VCU going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011; Florida Gulf Coast (“Dunk City”) to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed in 2013, eleven-seed Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four in 2018, St. Peter’s to the Elite Eight as a 15-seed in 2022. 

No such disruption this year. The Sweet 16 is all power conference programs. The closest we got was 12-seed High Point of the Big South Conference taking out Wisconsin in the first round, then playing Arkansas close before falling in the round of 32. VCU and Saint Louis of the Atlantic 10 both won their first-round games before getting bounced decisively by Big Ten teams in the second round. 

 The notion that Texas is a Cinderella because the Longhorns are an 11-seed is laughable. They’re a member of the SEC and have one of the largest athletic budgets in the country. They’re the privileged kid who scuffled along in college all year, but still got a cushy summer internship because of family connections. 

The last time there was a significant party crashing was 2023, when San Diego State and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four and Princeton advanced to the Sweet 16. For the second consecutive year, no team seeded 13-16 won a tournament game in the main draw. 

Get used to it. 

The formula for under-the-radar teams making a tournament run used to be a veteran group that had played together for several years and whose age and experience could offset the talent disparity against marquee programs, or a mid-major program that landed an under-recruited prospect or two to supplement an already solid roster. That’s become more difficult to pull off because of the transfer portal and budgets and NIL money that permit power conference schools to pay players. 

Indeed, the Sweet 16 is littered with players who began their careers elsewhere – not only jumps between power conference schools but smaller programs. Arizona has players from Harvard and Campbell. Michigan State has players from Harvard and Florida Atlantic. Alabama has transfers from Cal State Fullerton and Pepperdine. Nebraska has players who started at Rhode Island and Tulsa. Iowa State stud Joshua Jefferson began his career at St. Mary’s. 

Maybe the most visible example of movement and money is at Iowa, which knocked off defending champ Florida. Hawkeyes coach Ben McCollum won four Division 2 national championships at Northwest Missouri State, and two years ago was hired by Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference. Several of his players followed him to Drake, where they won the league title in his first season and upset Missouri in the NCAAs. Iowa hired him a year ago, and star guard Bennett Stirtz, who began his career with McCollum at Northwest Mizzou and went with him to Drake, followed him to Iowa along with three other Drake players. The kid who hit the winning shot against Florida last weekend was previously at Robert Morris. 

Point being that continuity and team development take hits in the present landscape. High-level recruits move because they see a better opportunity or more money elsewhere. Productive mid-major players are plucked away by power conference programs who seek to fill holes with seasoned players and can pay more. NIL money may keep some players who don’t have pro talent in college longer, but the guess is that players who stay at a school for three or four years and true NCAA Cinderellas will dwindle. The tournament remains the best event in sports, but loses a touch of magic and unpredictability in service to the young folks who provide the thrill. A fair trade.

We're No. 69! Golden Bears Edition

The Atlantic Coast Conference is in the midst of a bounce-back season in the national hoops landscape. After landing only four teams in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the lowest percentage of league representation since the tournament expanded in 1985, the conference is forecast to get eight or nine teams into this year’s 68-team field. 

Top-ranked Duke leads the way, followed by tournament “locks” Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville, as well as Clemson, N.C. State and Miami. SMU is close to solidifying an invite, which leaves Virginia Tech and Cal-Berkeley battling for a possible eighth at-large berth – or both left out, depending on results in other tournaments. 

The Golden Bears have by far the sketchier resume’, so unless they win their final two regular season games and make a deep run in the ACC Tournament, they’re likely to be among the “First Four Out” on Selection Sunday – a worthy/unworthy No. 69. Cal and Stanford and SMU came aboard the ACC two years ago in a marriage of inconvenience following the implosion of the Pac-12 and raids by the Big Ten Conference and later the Big 12. Cal and Stanford were basically set adrift, coincidentally, at the same time the ACC’s viability was in question amid realignment. Rather than see what might arise from the ashes of the Pac-12, Stanford and Cal chose a more stable, major conference path with the ACC, albeit 2,500 miles away. The new arrangement has made for some hellacious travel and challenging schedules, but everyone is copacetic – for now. 

Recent history: Cal made the NCAAs nine times in the early part of this century but hasn’t been to the tournament since 2016 and hasn’t played in postseason since 2017. The Golden Bears endured eight consecutive years of losing records until this season. Third-year coach Mark Madsen, a former Stanford star and NBA champ with the Lakers, rebuilt the program through the transfer portal and guided the Bears to their first 20-win season since 2017. Former coaches Ben Braun and Mike Montgomery regularly had the Bears in the NCAAs from the 1990s through the early 2010s. Legendary coach Pete Newell took Cal to the 1959 NCAA championship. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Golden Bears originated in 1895, when the school’s successful track team toured Midwestern and Eastern colleges. The team hung a blue banner with a golden grizzly bear, the state symbol, at meets, and the school’s teams came to be known as Golden Bears. The practice of using live bear cubs as mascots was discontinued in the 1940s, and a stuffed bear mascot named Oski was introduced. Oski the mascot was suspended for two weeks in 1990 after he threw cake at Oregon State fans, inadvertently hitting the father of Oregon State guard Gary Payton. 

Home arena: Haas Pavilion (cap. 11,858) is an on-campus arena originally opened in 1939 that underwent several renovations, most recently in the late ‘90s. It’s named for Walter Haas Jr., former president and CEO of Levi Strauss who donated $11 million toward the upgrade. 

Notable hoops alumni: Jason Kidd, Kevin Johnson, Jaylen Brown, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Leon Powe, Lamond Murray, Tony Gonzalez (the Hall of Fame tight end played hoops at Cal in the early ‘90s). 

Current season: The Golden Bears (20-9, 8-8 ACC) are tied for eighth in the league with SMU and Florida State. Their four top scorers are all new to the program through the transfer portal, led by 6-2 junior Dai Dai Ames (16.4 ppg) from Virginia, 6-3 sophomore Justin Pippen (14.7 ppg) from Michigan, 6-8 junior John Camden (14.2 ppg) from Delaware and 6-7 senior Chris Bell (13.6 ppg) from Syracuse. They’re middle of the pack in the ACC on offense and defense and near the bottom in rebound margin. 

Reasons to believe: Limited. Twenty wins in a marquee league are notable. Respectable 6-8 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Madsen has done a nice job assimilating a transfer-heavy roster. Cal is third in the conference in 3-point shooting and fourth in defending the 3. 

Reasons to fade them: Numerous. As of early March, the Bears were No. 64 in NET rankings, generally well outside the consideration zone. SMU, with whom they’re tied and recently beat head-to-head, is No. 35. Even Virginia Tech, a game back in the conference race, is No. 55. Part of the ratings discrepancy is the Bears’ dreadful non-conference strength of schedule, rated No. 328 by analytics guru Ken Pomeroy. Cal also did itself no favors last weekend with a gruesome, barely competitive loss at home to low-rated Pittsburgh. At the very least, Cal must beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest this week to close out the regular season and find some mojo in the ACC Tournament.

We're No. 69! San Diego State Edition

A college basketball program with a rich, recent postseason history that currently sits among the top three in a respected league normally wouldn’t have to worry about its NCAA Tournament status. That is, if the team was a member of a Power Four conference or the Big East. Leagues outside the Favored Five, however, often find themselves scrambling to get extra teams into the 68-team field. 

Which brings us to San Diego State. The Aztecs have been regular NCAA participants over the past two decades, even making the 2023 national championship game, where they lost to UConn. Depending on whose prospective bracket you look at, SDS is either just in or just out of the field, and the consensus is that they “have work to do.” 

2026 Pac 12 Tournament bracket

The Aztecs are a member of the Mountain West Conference, which has been well represented in the tournament in recent years – at least three at-large bids in each of the last four tournaments. Though bracketology gerbils seem to think league presence will be light when the field is announced next month in its last lap before a realignment exodus (more on that in a moment). San Diego State doesn’t have a gaudy record, owing to a challenging schedule and an underclass-heavy roster, though veteran coach Brian Dutcher has a deep and athletic group that defends typically well and can score at a high level. NCAA Net rankings and advanced analytics have SDS in the mid-40s, squarely on the bubble. 

The Aztecs head into the home stretch seeking their 17th Mountain West title before they and four other MW schools bolt for the Pac-12 this summer. The Pac-12 imploded a couple years ago after raids and exits for the Big Ten and Big 12 and was left with only Washington State and Oregon State. The reconstituted Pac-12 will include five former Mountain West schools and national hoops power Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference. 

Recent history: Fourteen NCAA Tournament appearances since 2002, with four trips to the Sweet 16 and the ’23 national title game. Their best team might have been 2019-20, when they went 30-2 but the pandemic scuttled the NCAA Tournament. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Students chose the Aztec nickname in 1925, and its mascot is an Aztec warrior formerly known as “Monty Montezuma,” whose name was retired because it was deemed racist and culturally insensitive. Puzzlement is understandable in wondering how and why a school in southern California chose a nickname from an indigenous society located 1,440 miles away in central Mexico conquered by the Spanish some 400 years earlier, when plenty of other, closer options were available. The Aztec nickname and representation have been debated on campus throughout the 21st century, but faculty and student groups ultimately chose to retain it with various tweaks and education programs. 

Home arena: Viejas Arena (cap. 12,414) is located on campus and opened in 1997. A couple years after its opening, the Viejas Band of Kumeyaay Indians entered into a naming rights agreement with the school, and it’s been known as Viejas Arena ever since. The Aztecs are particularly stout at home, going 103-12 in their last 115 home games and are 147-24 at home (.860) since the start of the 2015-16 season. 

Notable hoops alumni: Kawhi Leonard, Tony Gwynn (yep, *that* Tony Gwynn; baseball HoF’er was an all-conference hoops player at SDS and still holds single-season and career records for assists), Michael Cage, Keshad Johnson (Miami), Malachi Flynn (3 NBA teams, Turkey), Jalen McDaniel (4 NBA teams), Jamaal Franklin (2 NBA teams, China). 

Aztec on the left, Buff on the
right. They grew up doing
gymnastics together. And now
a blog post brings them
together. Small world.

Current season: Aztecs (18-8, 12-4 Mountain West) are tied for second in the league with New Mexico, a game behind Utah State. Ten players average between five and 12.6 points per game, led by 6-5 senior Reese Dixon-Waters (12.6 ppg) and 6-6 junior Miles Byrd (10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg), and eleven players average double-figure minutes. Through mid-February, the Aztecs were third in the nation in bench scoring at 36.6 ppg. Stats guru Ken Pomeroy has SDS leading the Mountain West in defensive efficiency, two-point FG defense, turnover percentage, steal and block percentage, and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage defense, and among the top 35 in the country in all those categories. 

Reasons to believe: Among the best strength-of-schedule ratings in the nation outside the Bigfoot conferences. A respectable 6-7 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. No bad losses, though a November loss to Troy (No. 142) is a blemish. Chances to bolster their argument against Utah State Wednesday at home and fellow bubble resident New Mexico on Saturday. Dutcher (216-76 in nine years) is excellent. 

Reasons to fade them: Not enough wins and dwindling opportunities – only four more regular season games and at most three conference tournament games. An untimely dip that’s seen them lose their last two, though Dutcher’s teams have lost three straight only once, in his first season. The Mountain West is only eighth in conference RPI, and bracket types believe they’ll get two teams at most. Utah State is likely safely in because of its profile, and New Mexico has a slightly better statistical case than the Aztecs. It would behoove the Aztecs to close at least 3-1 and make the conference semis.

We're No. 69! TCU Edition

The Big 12 Conference is one of the four remaining power leagues in college athletics and thus assured of receiving multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament. It’s home to a handful of Bigfoot programs that are annual participants – Kansas, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State (how and why the Cyclones are a national hoops power is one of the sport’s great curiosities) and several others that cycle in and out of the discussion. Conference realignment and consolidation have seen the league add programs such as ‘Zona and Houston and BYU in recent years, which strengthened the overall product but also made it a stone-cold gauntlet for any program that doesn’t have an elite talent pipeline. 

Which brings us to today’s entry in the almost-but-not-quite discussion of the 68-team field: the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas Christian sits squarely in the middle of the 16-team league with a decidedly bubbly resume’. Hoops guru Ken Pomeroy has the Frogs rated 50th following the weekend. NCAA Net Rankings have TCU at No. 45, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has them at No. 53. ESPN bracketology hound Joe Lunardi has the Horned Frogs as his first team out of the field. 

Historically, the private university in Fort Worth, Texas was a fixture in the old Southwest Conference. After the SWC demise in the mid-1990s, TCU wasn’t included with its traditional rivals in the aftermath and spent the next 16 years bouncing between the Western Athletic Conference, Conference USA and the Mountain West before latching onto the Big 12 in 2012. The Horned Frogs have a pretty modest hoops history, but head coach and TCU alum Jamie Dixon has elevated the program in his 10 years. 

Recent history: Four NCAA appearances since 2018, including three in a row from 2022-24. As many tournament appearances since 2018 as in the previous 49 years. Also, an NIT title in 2017, all of which traces to Dixon. He was an all-conference player at TCU in the late ‘80s and inducted into the school’s athletic Hall of Fame. He’s won more than 500 games as head coach in 23 years, first at Pittsburgh and then TCU, and is one of 11 active coaches with 15 NCAA trips. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Horned Frogs are a nod to one of the region’s common animals, which is actually a horned lizard and not an amphibian and the Texas state reptile. Its use as sports team mascot dates to the late 1800s. 

Home arena: Schollmaier Arena (cap. 6,700), which opened in 1961 and has been renovated and updated several times, most recently an $80-million upgrade completed in 2015. It also has one of the singularly distinct home courts in college hoops, a kind of multi-shaded gray mosaic that’s supposed to emulate lizard skin. 

Notable hoops alumni: Kurt Thomas (New York Knicks), Lee Nailon (15-year pro career in the NBA and overseas), Kenrich Williams (OKC Thunder), Emanuel Miller (Cleveland Cavs), Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic). 

Current season: Horned Frogs (16-9, 6-6) have won three in a row, heading into Tuesday’s XL matchup against fellow bubble resident Central Florida. No stars, but decent balance. Four players in double figures, led by 6-7 sophomore David Punch (14.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg), 6-8 junior Xavier Edmonds (12.4 ppg, 6 rpg) and 6-0 senior Jayden Pierre (10.7 ppg). Eight players average between five and 14 points per game. 

Reasons to believe: To start with, Dixon, an excellent coach and tactician who has excelled at both the college and international level. Quality wins against Florida, Iowa State and Wisconsin. A respectable 5-6 record against Quad 1 teams and 4-2 versus Quad 2 and 3 teams. Big 12 schedule elevates their profile. 

Reasons to fade them: A lot of undistinguished numbers. Middle of the pack in effective field goal percentage offense and defense. Below middle of the pack in 2-point and 3-point shooting. A non-conference strength of schedule that’s No. 336. A dreadful loss to New Orleans to open the season, a beatdown by Colorado and a loss to Utah for the Utes’ only conference win so far. Lunardi projects the Big 12 to get seven teams in the field. TCU currently is tied for eighth, so unless the Frogs step up in their final six games and conference tournament, their horns are likely to get squeezed.

We're No. 69: Santa Clara

Five weeks away from Selection Sunday and the best event in sports, the NCAA Tournament. According to several bracketologists, almost 30 teams are locks for the 68-team field, another dozen are almost assured spots barring late-season face-plants, and roughly two dozen teams have work to do to and are on the bubble. Which brings us to the first entry in this season’s series: the Santa Clara Broncos. 

The Broncos are a case study in both seasonal evaluations that go into selection and the larger college hoops landscape that determines who gets a seat at the table. The school is a private Jesuit university located down the road from the San Francisco Bay area and California’s oldest institution of higher learning. It’s a charter member of the West Coast Conference, founded in 1952, and its notable conference hoops rivals are Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. The Broncos are No. 41 in current NCAA Net rankings, which the committee uses to separate teams, No. 38 in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and No. 51 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). Herb Sendek – yes, *that* Herb Sendek, formerly of Arizona State and N.C. State – is in his 10th season as head coach. 

Let’s give them a look: 

Recent history: At least 20 wins the past five seasons, including this year. NIT appearances three of the past four seasons. A pretty fair historical footprint, with seven NCAA appearances, including the 1952 Final Four, and four other NIT trips. The Broncos have had only seven coaches since 1935, and all but one of them had career winning records. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Broncos and a mascot named Bucky, of which there appears to blessedly little history. The student section is referred to as “Ruff Riders.”

Home arena: Leavey Center (cap. 4,500) in Santa Clara, named for alum Thomas E. Leavey (Class of 1922), the founder of Farmers Insurance (cue J.K. Simmons and the TV commercial theme). 

Notable hoops alumni: Steve Nash, who led the Broncos to the NCAAs in 1993, ’95 and ’96 and was a two-time NBA MVP; Kurt Rambis; Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder), Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors); John Bryant (WCC Player of Year, fixture in German professional league to present day); Dennis Awtrey; Ken Sears (1950s All-American and first college hoops player to appear on cover of Sports Illustrated). 

Current season: Santa Clara (21-5, 12-1) is currently in first place in the WCC, a half-game ahead of Gonzaga and a game-and-a-half up on St. Mary’s in a top-heavy league in which the top three have separated from the pack. Redshirt sophomore guard Christian Hammond (16.4 ppg) is one of three double-figure scorers, along with 6-7 senior Elijah Mahi (14 ppg) and 6-9 redshirt freshman Allen Graves (11.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg). The Broncos have won eight in a row and 12 of 13, their only loss a respectable effort against the Zags. 

Reasons to believe: Depth, quality, shooting ability, unselfishness. Nine players average between five and 16 points per game and between 12 and 30 minutes per game. They have seven capable 3-point shooters and five players with at least 60 assists. They shoot 47.6 percent as a team and are outscoring opponents by 12 points per game. They beat St. Mary’s in their first meeting, and they get another crack at both the Gaels and Zags in coming weeks. A solid 7-4 record against Quad 1 and 2 competition. 

Reasons to fade them: Here’s where we get into the effects of one’s neighborhood. The West Coast Conference is a middlin’ 11th in league RPI ratings. Gonzaga is near the top of the heap in many metrics, and St. Mary’s is actually several spots ahead of Santa Clara despite the head-to-head loss. This has led to hoopologists wondering if the WCC is worthy of a third team getting into the field, i.e., a second at-large bid. The Big Ten is projected to get nine and perhaps ten at-large bids, the SEC eight and the ACC and Big 12 seven. The eighth- or ninth-place team in a conference no more deserves a spot in the NCAAs, unless it wins the automatic bid, than you or me (Dead Horse and Club alert). 

Shouldn’t matter if the league is deep and difficult, but in an era of consolidation and mega-conferences, it does because the power conferences dictate terms. Selectors use metrics and available statistical tools to justify inclusion among the Power 4 conferences and the swells, and to exclude mid-majors who did everything asked of them, but whose numbers "just didn’t add up." That’s why we’re in a season where Miami of Ohio is still undefeated and could win 30 games, but if the RedHawks lose in the MAC Tournament, there’s a very real chance they’ll be denied because of their strength of schedule or predictive metrics or league ranking or whatever. In a just and fair world, teams such as Miami-O and Santa Clara should be locks for the field if they get to 26 or 28 wins. Alas, boys and girls, we do not live in such a world.

We're #69! Tar Heels Edition

One peculiarity this basketball season is the inconsistent, at times puzzling, performance of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are one of the sport’s blue bloods, an annual NCAA Tournament participant and on the short list of the nation’s most recognizable programs. 

UNC was ranked in the top 10 in preseason polls and picked to finish second in the ACC behind a loaded Duke, facing a schedule dotted with premier games. Fast forward, and the Heels have zero marquee wins. As recently as three weeks ago they were scuffling along just one game over .500 in the league and were barely on the fringe of NCAA consideration. 

A current win streak fueled by lineup tweaks has lifted UNC into the discussion, though ESPN bracketology gerbil [Ouch, babe.] Joe Lunardi and The Athletic hoop snoop Joe Rexrode both have Carolina among the first four omitted from the 68-team field. NCAA Net Rankings have the Heels a very bubbly No. 38, and Ken Pomeroy ranks them 38, as well. 

Let’s dig in our Heels: (Full disclosure: I grew up in Maryland, a fan of the Terps and Lefty Driesell and later attended College Park. Carolina’s consistent excellence under Dean Smith and frequent wins versus Maryland provided constant anguish for a kid in the days of the old ACC. Once I began covering sports for a living, however, my rooting interests subsided. I became a fan of decent stories, accommodating deadlines and reliable wi-fi connections. Though I must admit, there remains a small corner of my brain that smiles when Carolina struggles.) 

Recent History: Not too shabby. Twenty NCAA appearances since 2000. Three NCAA titles this century (2005, 2009, 2017), seven Final Fours, 13 appearances in Sweet 16. 

Mascot/Nickname Profile: Tar Heels and North Carolina’s nickname as the Tarheel State date to colonial times. The state was a massive source of material used in wooden shipbuilding – tar and pitch and turpentine from the state’s abundant pine forests – first for the British Royal Navy, and then domestically after independence. It was used to seal hulls and prevent rot. 

Around the time of the Civil War, outsiders began referring to NC natives and troops as Tarheels, a derisive nickname that natives later adopted as a source of pride, that they were more likely to “stick” to their causes and convictions than outsiders who were less committed. 

The school’s mascot, a ram named Rameses, dates to 1924. The football team’s star fullback, Jack Merritt, was nicknamed “Battering Ram” for his style of play. The head cheerleader at the time suggested that the school purchase a ram as mascot, which it did. Legend has it that in a scoreless tie against Virginia Military Institute, UNC’s kicker rubbed the ram’s head for luck and then went out and kicked the game-winning field goal. A ram has been on the sidelines at UNC football games ever since. The stuffed costume ram mascot seen at basketball games and other events dates to the late 1980s. 

IYKYK

Home Arena: Dean E. Smith Center, aka the Dean Dome (cap. 21,750). Opened in 1986. The baby-bluest building you’ll ever walk into. Smith was notably hesitant about a new arena three times the size of the program’s traditional home, Carmichael Auditorium. But he was eventually convinced because of the program’s growing popularity and the fact that it would allow more students to attend games. He was never entirely comfortable with the fact that it was named for him. For all of his success, he routinely deflected attention from himself. For instance, when people referred to UNC as a basketball school, he often responded that no, it was a women’s soccer school, owing to legendary coach Anson Dorrance and his title harvesting program. 

Notable Hoops Alumni: Dear lord, where to start? That Jordan fellow, Vince Carter, James Worthy, Tyler Hansbrough, Billy Cunningham, Phil Ford, Kenny Smith, Larry Brown, Antawn Jamison, Bob McAdoo, George Karl, Charlie Scott, Sam Perkins, Brad Daugherty, Al Wood, Armando Bacot, Walter Davis, Bobby Jones, Mitch Kupchak, Rick Fox. Three of their coaches are also in the Naismith Hall of Fame – Frank McGuire, El Deano and Roy Williams. 

Current Season: The Heels (20-11, 13-6 in the ACC) are in fourth place in the league, a half-game ahead of Wake Forest and SMU. Graduate guard R.J. Davis (17.2 ppg), the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and school career No. 2 scorer behind Hansbrough, is one of three players averaging in double figures, along with 6-4 freshman Ian Jackson (13.5 ppg) and 6-3 junior Seth Trimble (12.1 ppg). UNC has won six in a row and scored more than 80 points in each game, due in part to recent emergence of 6-9 graduate Jae’Lyn Withers (70 pts last six games) and 6-8 junior Ven-Allen Lubin (7.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg), who has scored in double figures in his past five games. Both bigs have also helped reverse the season-long trend of spotty rebounding. 

Hubert is a FOG:TB by proxy

Reasons to Believe: Late-season success, which is supposedly a factor in selection. Notion that it’s difficult to fathom the ACC not getting at least four teams into the tournament. The fact that they’re North Freakin’ Carolina. To that end, I was reminded recently that the selection committee knows precisely what teams they’re evaluating. The idea that the committee blindly compares resume’s for a supposedly more objective decision is a media concoction – often attempting to measure the worth of one team chosen vs. another that was left out. If you believe that committee members don’t consider conferences and schools when it comes to selection and seeding and juicy potential tournament matchups, we have a swell real estate proposition for you in a little paradise we call Gaza. UNC Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham is chair of the selection committee. Now, ADs are supposed to recuse themselves when their teams are discussed, but administrative back-scratching, anyone? 

Reasons to Fade Them: Metrics. The Heels have exactly one Quad 1 win, a Dec. 21 neutral site game vs. UCLA. They’re 1-10 against Q1 (Quad 1 results are home games vs. the top 30, neutral site games against the top 50 and away games against the top 75). The only team ranked above them in NCAA Net with one or fewer Q1 wins is No. 29 VCU (1-1), and obviously the Rams had only two opportunities. That said, a win against Duke Saturday and/or a deep run in the ACC Tournament would bolster their case. The fact that the ACC is down this season doesn’t provide the statistical cushion and boost of years past. In short, unless the Heels win the ACC Tournament, it could go either way. But don’t be surprised if they hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

We're No. 69! Rams Edition

Less than a month until NCAA Selection Sunday, so the final push for teams to bolster their cases for inclusion and to prevent the entire Southeastern Conference from en masse invitation. Compelling cases abound for the 68-team field among programs from marquee leagues and so-called mid-majors. 

 

Personally, I have a soft spot for teams from lower rated leagues that excel over middle-of-the-pack teams in blue blood conferences that possess numerous structural and financial advantages already. Reward teams that enjoy outsized success, rather than brand name programs that benefit from the neighborhood in which they reside (looking at you, Georgia and Nebraska, among others). 

With that in mind, several bracketology noodlers have VCU (that’s Virginia Commonwealth University, for the Mid-Atlantic impaired) among the first four teams omitted, which means that the Rams can still play their way into the tournament, either by winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament and earning the league’s automatic bid, or stockpiling wins as the season winds down and presenting the selection committee with a convincing case for one of the 37 at-large bids (Correction: in a previous post, I mistakenly wrote that the field is comprised of 32 conference champs and 36 at-large bids; I forgot that the demise of the Pac-12 removed one league champ and thus added an at-large berth. Management regrets the error). 

Let’s dig into the Rams. 

Recent History: Pretty fair, for a program outside the Power Conferences. The Rams have made the NCAA Tournament 13 times since 2004 and have won at least 20 games seventeen times in that span, under six different coaches. VCU famously made the Final Four in 2011 under Shaka Smart as a member of the Colonial (now Coastal) Athletic Association, advancing from the First Four and upsetting Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. Their .712 winning percentage in conference play since joining the A10 in 2012 is the league’s best. 

Mascot/Nickname Profile: Rodney the Ram originated in 1963 under the Richmond Professional Institute and replaced an early mascot known as the Green Devil. RPI merged with the Medical College of Virginia in 1968, after which the school changed colors to the current black and gold. 

Home Arena: E.J. Wade Arena at the Stuart Siegel Center, often referred to as The Stu, downtown Richmond (cap. 7,637). Darn fine small arena. School’s pep band is a banger and contributes greatly to excellent gameday experience. Legit homecourt advantage. 

Notable Hoops Alumni: Bones Hyland, Vince Williams Jr., Kendrick Warren, Eric Maynor, Larry Sanders (no, not that one), Briante’ Weber, Treveon Graham, Mo Alie-Cox, an athletic marvel who after a college career as a rebounding and shot-blocking monster neatly transitioned to pro football and became a tight end with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Recent photo of 
Briante' Weber

Current Season: Rams are 20-5 overall, 10-2 in A10, in second place behind George Mason, under second-year head coach Ryan Odom, son of longtime Wake Forest coach Dave Odom and who played for former William and Mary head mustache Tony Shaver at Hampden-Sydney. You might recall that Odom, who replaced Mike Rhoades, was head coach at UMBC in 2018, when the Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1, blasting Virginia in the first round of the NCAAs. 

Reason to Believe: Rams are a veteran bunch with size and depth, and they defend the starch out of opponents. Six of their top seven are grad students or seniors, led by 6-4 guard Joe Bamisile (15.8 ppg) and 6-5 Max Shulga (15.1 ppg, team-high 97 assists). They are top-25 nationally in defensive efficiency, top-10 in effective field goal percentage defense. They’re among the national leaders in blocked shots and opponent turnover rate at more than 20 percent. VCU is No. 32 in Ken Pomeroy’s team rankings and No. 34 in NCAA Net Rankings, as of last weekend. They average better than nine 3-pointers per game. 

Reason to Fade Them: Little room for error. The Rams’ non-conference strength of schedule (301) doesn’t help the cause. The A10 is rated only sixth or seventh among conferences, with VCU and Mason the only teams among the top 70 in NCAA Net Rankings. Losses from here on are more likely to hurt its statistical profile more than wins will benefit. The Rams get their lone crack at Mason on Feb. 22 and finish the regular season vs. Dayton on March 7, both at home, in what are their best chances to enhance the resume’ before the conference tournament. If VCU can reach 26 or 27 wins, even without winning the A10 Tournament, it might be enough to sneak in, provided there are few at-large bid thiefs come March.

We're # 69!!: Demon Deacons Edition

NCAA Tournament selection is six weeks away, but bracketology never sleeps. There are several ways to rank teams and their chances of making the 68-team field. Sometimes they coincide, sometimes they don’t. For instance, Kansas State is No. 69 in Ken Pomeroy’s ranking system as of Feb. 1, while Wake Forest is No. 69 in the NCAA’s Net rankings. However, that doesn’t mean either is on the cusp of making the tournament or the first team omitted. 

The tournament structure, by which lower-rated teams and leagues earn automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, means that higher-rated teams with statistically better profiles are bypassed. Thus, unless Kansas St. goes on a heater or wins the Big 12 Tournament, there’s no chance the Wildcats are even considered for the NCAAs. Wake Forest, on the other hand, can make the field but has work to do. 

Patrick Stevens, Sexy MF

Which brings us to the humans weighing the data, or at least the ones attempting to divine what the NCAA Selection Committee will or should do. Patrick Stevens, a Washington Post contributor, is one of the best at parsing and predicting tournament fields. He’s done it for years. He routinely misses no more than one of the 36 at-large bids, and many of his seeding predictions are on the screws or within a line of where the committee actually seeds them in its bracket. Where there are discrepancies, his reasoning is often superior to whatever the NCAA committee says. Stevens’ latest projection has the Deacons as one of the first four teams out, so they’re obviously able to play their way in. 

So, let’s become acquainted with the Deacs. 

Recent history: Lean, at least in terms of national recognition. Once an NCAA Tournament staple under former coaches Dave Odom and the late Skip Prosser, Wake hasn’t made the NCAAs since 2017, its only trip since 2010. The Deacons played in the NIT in 2022 and ’24. Coach Steve Forbes (not the magazine publisher and former Republican presidential candidate) is in his fifth year and has gained traction while mining the transfer portal after the meh tenure of Danny Manning. They finished sub-.500 in the ACC in 10 of 11 seasons, from 2011-21, but are on pace for a fourth consecutive season of .500 or better. 

Mascot/Nickname Profile: The Deacons, or Demon Deacons if you prefer your piety laced with menace, goes back to 1923, according to Wikipedia. The school newspaper’s editor referred to the football team as “Demon Deacons” in a story, in recognition of their "devilish play and fighting spirit." The football coach and school officials liked the description and it stuck. The mascot first appeared in 1941, when a student dressed up in a tuxedo and top hat and roamed the sidelines, like an old-school deacon, and the image endured. The athletic department has had a student in an oversized costume Deacon for years. 

Home arena: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum (cap. 14,665), Winston-Salem NC. Opened in 1989. Named for Lawrence Joel, a Winston-Salem native who in 1969 was the first African-American Medal of Honor recipient since the Spanish-American War, for his efforts during a firefight in Vietnam. Quality venue. The joint jumps when it’s near capacity and the Deacons are good. 

Muggsy Bogues, Sexy MF

Notable Hoops Alumni: Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, Randolph Childress, Muggsy Bogues (who remains one of the damnedest ballers I’ve ever seen), Rodney Rogers, Josh Howard, Billy Packer (yes, *that* Billy Packer), Len Chappell, Dickie Hemric. 

Current Season: Wake is 16-6 overall, 8-3 and tied for fourth in the ACC behind Duke, Clemson and Louisville. The Deacs were picked to finish third in preseason behind Duke and North Carolina. They’re led by All-ACC guard Hunter Sallis (18.3 ppg) and generally go eight-deep, with five of them coming in via transfer. 

Reason To Believe: Veteran team, heavy on wings and versatility, with six in the rotation between 6-4 and 6-7. Sallis is the standout but six others average between five and 13 ppg, including 6-4 English import Cameron Hildreth (13.6 ppg) and 6-7 App State transfer Tre'Von Spillers (10.1 ppg). They defend – second in the conference in FG percentage defense (.391) and first in 3-point percentage D (.306). 

Reason To Fade Them: They have no bad losses, but only one Quad 1 win (1-6). Can’t shoot from the perimeter. Last in the conference in 3-point percentage (.287) and 3-pointers made per game (6.0). None of their regulars shoot better than 33 percent from deep. Third from the bottom in rebound margin, at minus-1.62 per game. Also, fact that ACC is down this season – fifth in the latest conference rankings – means they’ll have fewer opportunities to burnish the résumé. All that said, if Wake continues to hold its place – win the games it should, avoid losses to the league’s bottom tier, win a game or two in the conference tournament – the fourth-place ACC team with 23 or 24 wins should be in pretty fair shape for an NCAA berth. The SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 can't hog all the at-large invites.

March Maddening

The calendar’s best sporting event is upon us, which seems a good time to point out that we should enjoy it while it lasts in its present form because the Big Hats appear to be considering ways to alter the experience and to further enrich the few. 

We speak, of course, of the NCAA basketball tournament. The NCAAs are three weeks of the best that college basketball offers, with intriguing matchups and compelling performances and buzzer-beaters, with just enough upsets and unlikely teams to mask how tilted the overall field is toward the privileged. I’ve whipped that dead nag previously, so I’ll go light in this installment. 

Going forward, the changes being contemplated are in the name of progress, evolution, and governance. Squint and those components might read like “money.” The tournament’s current format has been in place since 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams. A 65th team and play-in game were added in 2001. Three more teams and the “First Four” concept in 2011 gave us the present 68-team field – 32 conference champions, 36 at-large invitations. 

Discussion about expanding the tournament to 96 teams has been around for more than a decade, a truly terrible idea that I’m convinced will come eventually. It embodies the questionable notion that “if some is good, more is better.” An expanded field would provide at least an extra week of programming and content, which means larger payouts from TV networks. 

The primary reason I think an expanded field is coming has more to do with football than basketball. Football-fueled expansion and realignment has created 16- and 18-team mega-conferences, with no telling what sort of consolidation might occur in the next several years. Those leagues and schools are going to expect (read: demand) the same NCAA Tournament participation percentages in the new landscape. In other words, four or five or six teams from a historic 10- or 12-team league will become seven or eight or nine teams from oversized collections. 

For reference, in the past decade more than 81 percent of at-large bids to the NCAA field have gone to the Power Six conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, and the soon-to-be late, lamented Pac-12). Add the recent ascendant and multi-bid Mountain West Conference, and the remaining 25 leagues might be fighting for scraps. 

In addition, what might NCAA governance look like in the future? Will there even be an NCAA? The power football conferences, bolstered by gajillions in TV money, are doing their own thing. What passed for NCAA leadership has been all but neutered as the organization flails about trying to get a handle on athlete empowerment. Who and what might administer the basketball tournament? 

ESPN snoop Pete Thamel recently posted a piece that said talks are ongoing about a possible 80-team hoops tournament. Plenty of people are quoted in the piece calling the NCAA Tournament a “treasure” and hoping to preserve it in something resembling its present form, that the model shouldn’t simply be blown up and re-created simply because a new power structure is in place. Yet SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, a smart fellow who can step into a leadership vacuum when he sees it, might have given away the goal within the penthouse boardroom: “Nothing remains static. I think we have to think about the dynamics around Division I and the tournament.” He pointed out UCLA’s recent run from First Four to Final Four and Syracuse’s run to the Sweet 16 from a play-in appearance and said, “That just tells you that the bandwidth inside the top 50 is highly competitive. We are giving away highly competitive opportunities for automatic qualifiers (from lower-rated leagues), and I think that pressure is going to rise as we have more competitive basketball leagues at the top end because of expansion.” 

There you have it. The NCAA Tournament not as (relatively) inclusive reward for a season’s accomplishment, but an additional exposure for the membership’s elite brands. Kinda makes you wish for something more pure and less mercenary, like an Apple stock buyback or a Silicon Valley IPO.

Playing Field, Tilted

As the calendar flips to March, many of us eagerly await the annual exercise in corporate welfare with jump shots. The NCAA basketball tournament is the best event in sports, three weeks of competitive drama so compelling and entertaining that it’s easy to overlook the fact that it mirrors much of American society because it’s heavily gamed toward the privileged. 

Thirty-two conference champions and 36 teams selected at-large make up the 68-team NCAA field. The Power 5 conferences – ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, Pac-12 – and Big East make up the bulk of the bracket. Teams outside the Big Six must be exceptional for four months, or catch a spark for a week in March to make the NCAA field. Even that might not be enough. 

Whereas teams within the marquee conferences need be only marginally successful to get invited to the party. Upsets are routine. A St. Peter’s or Loyola of Chicago or Butler or VCU makes a run and provides a whiff of inclusion, and the NCAA is glad you think so. 

In the past decade, 264 of the 326 at-large berths went to the Power 5 conferences and Big East – that’s 81 percent. The remaining 62 at-larges (19 percent) went to the other 26 conferences. Now, you might point out that marquee conferences have more good teams and deserve more berths. And you would be correct. But the system is also set up to ensure overwhelming representation for the Bigfoot leagues at the expense of lesser conferences. 

The NCAA has long used statistical measures to evaluate and compare teams and conferences. The current NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings are more comprehensive than the old Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), which was weighted toward teams’ and opponents’ winning percentages. NET rankings account for game results, strength of schedule, location of games, and quality of wins and losses. Games and opponents are assigned to four quadrants, based on level of difficulty. Quad 1 wins are most valuable, Quad 3 and 4 losses most damaging. Different metrics, same results. 

Analytic profiles are used more often to include power conference teams and exclude teams from lower-rated leagues. A seventh-place team in the Big 12 likely has a better statistical profile than a regular season champion from the Mid-American Conference with 26 wins. Is the seventh-place Big 12 team better than the MAC champ? Maybe. But does any seventh-place team deserve to compete for the national championship, while the MAC champ is snubbed by the selection committee because the league is low rated and they lost in their conference tournament? 

Sports are often held up as pure meritocracy, where ability and performance erase class divisions. Tell that to kids and parents who cannot afford the time and expense of travel ball that identify and nurture prospects, to the legion of qualified minority coaching candidates, and to most of those in the ecosystem of college athletics. Quality mid-major programs cannot schedule their way into a better statistical ranking and the at-large discussion, because power conference schools often won’t play them. There’s little benefit. A power conference school might lose to a quality mid-major. Better to schedule winnable home games in November and December, a snazzy early-season tournament, maybe a matchup or two against a fellow Big Six program, and then your conference slate elevates your statistical profile. 

The analytics guys and selection committee look at the 26- or 27-win Big Sky champ that lost in the conference semifinals and say, “Sorry, but your league and strength-of-schedule are too low. Numbers don’t lie.” They don’t lie, but they do dance, depending on who’s playing the tune. 

Conference realignment and consolidation will make it even more difficult for quality mid-majors to schedule up. Big Six leagues are moving toward 20-game conference schedules, which reduce openings for non-league games. That’s why coaches such as Tony Bennett at Virginia and North Carolina’s Hubert Davis deserve some credit. Bennett has scheduled home-and-home series with James Madison and VCU in recent years. Davis scheduled games against College of Charleston and UNC Wilmington, two of the Colonial Athletic Association’s best teams, and JMU this season. All at home, but still better than many.  

The 2011 Connecticut team is cited by some as justification for more power conference schools in the tournament. The Huskies finished tied for ninth in the Big East that season and had lost four of five heading into the conference tournament. Counter to form, they won five games in five days to capture the title and the league’s automatic bid, then all six NCAA games – 11 straight – for the national championship. However, that’s as much an outlier as VCU’s run to the Final Four. UConn at least earned its way into the NCAA field by winning the conference tournament, same as any scuffling conference mutt that gets hot in March. But the Huskies as plucky underdogs? Please. They and their Big Six brethren have access to money and resources of which most programs can only dream. 

There’s discussion of expanding the field to 96 teams, a truly wretched idea that falls into the category of “if some is good, more is better.” Critics argue that a larger field will devalue the regular season, though I’d point out that the regular season is already devalued to some degree. Many power conference teams that finish fifth or sixth get a mulligan and a trip to the NCAAs, while one-bid leagues know that one week in March decides it all. 

Advocates say that more deserving mid-majors will be included in a larger field. That’s almost certainly true, but I have no confidence that current proportions won’t persist, and we’ll see a bunch of 10th- and 11th-place teams from power conferences in the field. 

Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said that he thinks an expanded field would allow more coaches to keep their jobs, a specious argument. Ask Rick Barnes how annual 20-win seasons and NCAA trips solidified his tenure at Texas. 

I don’t advocate revolution or even equal representation, you filthy Bolsheviks, but merely a few tweaks in the present system. A little less deference to the gated communities, whose residents already have plentiful advantages, and a few more rewards for those that merit. The changes wouldn’t impact more than a handful of teams per season. Any regular season champion with, say, at least 25 total wins gets into the NCAA field, even if it loses in the conference tournament. A team that did exemplary work all season shouldn’t be penalized for one off day or hot opponent in March, a more exacting standard than power conference teams face. 

Twenty-five wins may seem arbitrary, but no more arbitrary than an algorithm that inflates a team’s profile based on a few “quality” wins and the neighborhood in which it resides. Twenty-five is also a lofty enough number that it would eliminate many leagues’ champs from consideration and limit the howling from predictable corners. And if a one-bid league manages to get a second team into the NCAAs, the committee must choose between teams from the Big Six – separate the resumes of the fifth-place SEC team and seventh-place Big 12 team. No cherry-picking from the relatively few mid-majors on the bubble. 

These suggestions have approximately zero chance of being implemented, as committee members and decision makers are well aware on which side their bagels are schmear’d. Far less blowback for kneecapping Stephen F. Austin than, say, Indiana. Showcase marquee conferences and big brands. Just enough representation for lower-rated leagues to appear fair. Competition takes care of itself. Most folks are entertained and go home happy. As the kids learn, who gets screwed can make the how and why much more palatable.