This Week in Wrenball: OBX Dave Shows Us How a Pro Does It

Because the holiday season cannot be a ceaseless parade of joy and good cheer [and there's only two hours left in the World Cup], we check in with William and Mary basketball. 

Johnny O'Neil, modern-day Nathan Smith

The Tribe sits at 4-7 amid a week-long break between games for semester exams, about where outsiders expected, given roster makeup and non-conference schedule, with head-scratchers and WTF stretches outpacing glimmers of hope. The fellas predictably fell against ACC foes Virginia Tech, Pitt and N.C. State. They defeated rival and defending Atlantic 10 tournament champion Richmond, and they came up small when it mattered in losses to Navy, American, Old Dominion and Norfolk State. 

The early part of the season was always going to be a challenge for a team with 10 new players – five transfers and five freshmen. Six players skedaddled via the transfer portal after a gruesome 5-27 season. But in today’s college climate, one player’s escape hatch is another’s escort past the velvet rope. Coach Dane Fischer and his staff landed transfers from Pitt, Vanderbilt, Rice, Providence and St. Thomas (Minn.). 

Fischer told former Daily Press colleague and current Tribe athletic scribbler Dave Johnson back in October: “I love the way this team is starting to come together and compete. We've got a long way to go given the new bodies here, but I like the talent level we have.” 

Fischer is more enamored of the talent than many. The Tribe was picked eighth out of 13 teams in the Colonial Athletic Association, among the third or perhaps fourth tier in what appears to be a stratified league. Early season statistical evaluations are always sketchy due to differing levels of difficulty in non-conference schedules, but the Wrens are in the CAA middle in scoring offense and defense, field goal shooting percentage and field goal percentage defense. They presently lead the CAA in team 3-point shooting, but are third from the bottom in team free throw percentage (.655), a potentially troubling sign for a team with little margin for error. Four of the five starters in recent outings are transfers, the holdover being 6-9 junior Ben Wight. Eight players average between five and 11 points per game. Five players average at least 24 minutes per game, five others between 10 and 17 minutes per game. Nobody averages more than 28 minutes. 

It’s logical to figure that Fischer is sprinkling out minutes early trying to identify the best combinations and rotations, as well as giving guys some run in one-sided games. No telling yet if he will shorten his bench when conference season arrives or continue to go 10-deep. The Tribe has some size in Wight, 6-8 Pitt transfer Noah Collier, 6-6 wing Gabe Dorsey from Vandy, and 6-5 Providence transfer Matteus Case, along with 6-7 freshman wing Jack Karasinski. 

The most intriguing addition might be Anders Nelson, a 6-1 grad transfer from Minnesota. He was a four- year standout at D3 St. Thomas, where he scored more than 1,400 points, was all-conference and all-region and led the team to a pair of NCAA Sweet 16s. He’s presently the leading scorer at 10.9 points per game, and shoots 48 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range. Decide for yourself if the fact that one of the team’s most effective players has a D3 resume’ is discouraging, or a sign that perhaps he was an undersell and could have been a serviceable D1 player all along. 

William and Mary figures to improve as players become more comfortable with each other, though the CAA’s upper tier is an unlikely reach, seeing as how most everyone else will also get better. Charleston is 11-1 and among others receiving votes in the AP Top 25. Heavy favorite Towson is 8-3, with a competitive loss to Clemson and Pat Skerry’s typical collection of athletes and inside muscle. UNCW is 8-3, with losses at North Carolina, UConn and Oklahoma, and a wealth of guards and wings. Delaware has two of the league’s best players in Jameer Nelson Jr., and Jiyare Davis. Hofstra returns CAA Player of the Year Aaron Estrada. 

Among William and Mary’s wild cards is Fischer. I’ve written in this space previously that it remains unclear if he can coach, or more accurately, how successful he can be in Williamsburg. He did well as a rookie head coach with a pro-caliber talent in Nathan Knight. The Tribe reverted to the mean after Knight’s graduation and during the pandemic, followed by last season’s face-plant. Pre-transfer portal days, the program’s model for success was built on continuity and player development, as it rarely attracts top prospects. Continuity and development are exponentially more difficult now, as younger players can more easily seek “better” situations and older players look for new settings. Coaches now have even more categories to confront when they spin the Wheel of Indigestion, with recruiting, re-recruiting players they already have, scouring the transfer portal, making sure that NIL opportunities don’t go full cash drop, in addition to the usual academics, administrators, boosters, youthful hormones, and the uncooperative 6-5 opponent who scatters your defenders all evening on the way to his next school. 

In brief, the Tribe’s season is a challenge. On the plus side, several teams in the expanded (bloated?) CAA appear to be struggling as well, so a 5-27 repeat is unlikely. On the flip side, the top of the conference is a steep climb, and its present inhabitants will remain. Given the Tribe’s current makeup and inevitable roster churn throughout the land, there’s no guarantee that we won’t have this identical conversation 12 months from now and for years to come. So by all means, doctor your egg nog to taste.