While the rest of you are hunkering down for the snowstorm I've been mining the depths of pro-football-reference.com to prove that Jacksonville's defense is overrated. Here's a list of the QBs they played:
- Tom Savage with Deshaun Watson in relief in week 1
- Marcus Mariota (twice)
- Joe Flacco and Ryan Mallett
- Josh McCown
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Jared Goff
- Jacoby Brissett (twice)
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- DeShone Kizer
- Blaine Gabbert
- Russell Wilson
- TJ Yates
- Jimmy Garoppolo
Aside from Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson (all three made the Pro Bowl) this is not a particularly distinguished list. At least six of those guys are bad, McCown is a journeyman/replacement level player, and the jury is still out on Mariota, Watson, Goff, and Garoppolo (although the last three admittedly look pretty good). Dalton and Flacco are probably washed up and past their primes.
In the running game they were ranked 21st in yardage and 26th in yards per carry. Not too impressive.
They absolutely smothered the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Texans, holding them all under 200 yards of total offense. But those teams were at or towards the bottom of the league in terms of yardage. Yes, they picked off Big Ben five times and made him contemplate retirement in his post-game press conference, but he still threw for over 300 yards.
By contrast, the Bills faced Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers--that's four games against Pro Bowlers. They also played Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, the last two league MVPs, and Alex Smith who led the league in QB rating. That's seven games against good QBs and partially explains their 20th ranking in passing yardage. Impressively, they allowed the second-fewest TD and had the sixth-most INT. They are not intimidated by Blake Bortles.
Ultimately I think the Jaguars defense makes its money via takeaways--they had 33 this year, second most in the NFL. Their 21 INTs were also second in the league, although it's hard to say how impressive this is given the level of QBs they played. Notably, Buffalo turned the ball over 16 times on offense, the sixth fewest in the league. Tyrod Taylor threw only 4 INT and led the league in INT % at 0.95%. So each team's strengths play into the other's. Van der Waals forces and all that.
I can easily see Bortles throwing three picks while the Bills play a clean game, with Buffalo winning 17-13. I can also see Bortles attempting 15 passes with Leonard Fournette getting 35 carries for 150 yards and the Bills going three-and-out every possession, with Jacksonville winning 13-7. Either way I say take the under (right now it's at 39.5 to 40) and the points (Bills are getting 9).
But in my heart I'm taking the Bills. After all, you gotta have faith.
And if you're really lucky I'll tell you why the intangibles cut in Buffalo's favor.
Thursday, January 04, 2018
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30 comments:
So much work on a topic nobody gives a flying fuck about!
I don’t care if the NFL tells me this is a “playoff” game and I should care. This is a shit sandwich of the highest order. I will be lugging my two kids and their three good legs to Brooklyn to watch Isles-Devils instead.
Hey TR, might want to check your password. I think Dave hacked your account.
It's the heart of Gheorghe to put an inordinate amount of effort into something few/no people will care about. I salute his steadfast mission.
But the game is gawdawful. Bills fans are happy, and that's cute. Good for them. AFC is a dumpster fire this year. It's a fact, Jake.
I will root for the Bills, for Zman and McDermott and Vincent Gallo.
I will incorporate TR's urethra into my next post to make it more widely appealing.
Don’t forget nasal polyps
Alright alright alright - my local movie house is showing 'Dazed and Confused' next Friday as a free midnight movie. I may have to go just to see peak McConaughey and Affleck one more time.
You don't think McConaughey is peaking with his recent commercial, where he and his hair plugs play a bongo drum solo in a Lincoln Navigator while waiting for a train to cross?
I do not, though it'd be a lot cooler if you had a joint.
It would be a lot cooler if the new Navigator didn't take most of its styling cues from the Ford Flex.
Jeter’s got an Edge. (Tri-state area joke)
Foot of snow here in SEVA. That’s not much compared to up north, but it absolutely paralyzes this town.
I've spent 36 of the past 43 years living in places that get snow regularly, and I have the following unsolicited tips for people who want to drive around in a snowstorm based largely on nonsense I saw today.
1. Clean the snow off your taillights. This way the person behind you knows when you hit the brakes.
2. Clean the snow off of all the glass. All of it. This way you can see. Learn how to turn on the rear defroster too.
3. To the extent possible clean all the snow off your hood. This way it won't blow up onto your windshield and blind you, causing you to slam on the brakes (which the guy behind you won't know because you didn't clean the taillights).
4. To the extent possible clean all the snow off the roof. This way it won't fly off and hit the windshield of guy behind you, thus blinding him. And it won't slide onto your windshield when you hit the brakes, thus blinding you. See #1-3 above.
5. Just because you drive a Jeep Wrangler doesn't meet you can't skid, and even if you don't skid you shouldn't cut me off while pulling out of the gas station on Main Street because I might not be able to stop in time given all the snow on the road.
And I think all of us talking about rooting for the Bills is not being very thoughtful where our GTBrother Danimal is concerned. What about the Jags, guys? What about Danno???
Also, before my phone dies, a Virginia state delegate seat was just determined via coin toss, basically. Ridiculous. Check out the Yancey/Simonds result.
Came up tails, as it were.
Book 'em, Danno
On this date in 2006, Vince Young and Texas defeat USC in the Rose Bowl, 41-38. A score predicted exactly right one day early by yours truly.
I’m a little jealous of those of you having a snow day(s). I’ve had hurricane days but those are far less relaxing from what I can tell.
It’s still quite cold here but it’s a beautiful day. I could actually get used to this. In small doses.
I just did round 1 of shoveling and salt spraying (yeah, I just typed that). Wind is blowing the snow in funky ways. It will hopefully end by 5, when winds max out at 25+ mph.
Our fridge is not fully stocked, but good enough for today.
best snow day ever . . . sled hill is perfect and the roads are bad enough that those yahoos from Edison can't drive over here, park in my neighborhood, and crowd up the slope.
Fuggin doochbags thoes cavones from Edison.
Dis fuggin batchagaloop from Edison, you see dis mutt ovah heyah? He drives his fuggin sled all ovah my hill, MY HILL! Who does he think he is wit dat fuggin sled, Kevin Kuske? What is he, fuggin Sanna Klawz? Dis hill was fuggin buttah, BUTTAH, befaw dis guy fugged it all up wit his bullshit sled.
MEMA (Mass emergency management agency) is feeling the heat up here. They went off the forecast but underestimated the high tide and flooding.
It looks like the water level will be higher in Boston than the '78 blizzard (4'8"). They are using zodiac boats to rescue stupid people who thought they could drive through the flooded streets.
Thanks Whit. Thanks for caring.
The positive, the bookmakers are not reading anything here they didn't know prior. But we GTB'rs are fer sher.
I hope to provide a similar argument for the jags in due course.
If it makes you feel better, it's extremely chilly in the Bahamas too...high of 67 today and windy as fuck!
My bro-in-law in Portland,Maine just got a snowblower for the first time ever. I'm sure he's damn glad of that fact.
I'm 200ish miles inland, and it's just a sunny, cold and windy day here. Enough for folks to bitch about, but nary a flake. Good luck to all of your middle aged backs to survive the shoveling unaffected.
those are beautifully done, marls and zman. where is jerry?
I just used my second hand snowblower for the first time. I blew more snow than LT circa 1985.
hey gheorghies! snow day gheorghies.
Serious question: do we need to be in Charleston for the CAA tourney in March? I feel like it could be an historic moment. And we can golf.
man, shlara is all in on these wrens
Sign me up for Charleston in March. Don’t expect me to plan anything or buy any W&M gear but I’ll go there and drink and yell with y’all. No golf either.
I badly want everything in the Seth wickersham Patriots article to be true.
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