Saturday College Football Open Thread - Bettors Edition

Rob remains in Florida sunning his diminutive self at the "House of the Mouse" and if social media is to believed, Tejus is in Chicago helping lay the groundwork for the next real estate bubble.  Sad!  

With those two top of the masthead contributers on the shelf for the next few days it is falling to the second string G:TB'ers to pick up some of the slack.  (A little help from Almighty Yojo would be appreciated if that guy could remember his password)

As none of you will remember, several years ago in this space we used the "Dwayne from What's Happening!" football pick strategy to predict the NFL playoffs.   I'm not sure how those picks turned out (and I'm too lazy to go back and check) but I thought that we might revisit making gambling decisions based on a totally illogical strategy.   Today's slate of top 25 match-ups in college football seems like the perfect place to start.

So, with out further ado, here is the first in a likely non-reoccouring feature called "Marls Picks College Football Games Based on Which Mascot Would Win In a Fight."

#7 Penn State vs. #14 Michigan State (PSU -10)

This is a battle between child molesting "Nittany Lions" vs. Spartans.  First of all, fuck Penn State.   No really, fuck them and their child molesting cover up bullshit.  Thankfully, based on mascot analysis, MSU should kick the everliving crap out of PSU.

It's these guys:

versus a Pennsylvania lion.  

Pick:   Take the Spartans and the points.

#21 Stanford vs. #25 Washington State (Stanford -1.5)

This game pits some trees against a bunch of cougars.  If they were playing cougars like the "cougars in the outfield" made famous by Shlara and KQ, this might be a different story.  But, alas Washington State is adamant that their mascot is a feline of some sort.  Unfortunately, all that type of cougar can do is pee on the tree.

Pick:    Take the nerds and lay the points

#4 Clemson vs. #20 NC State (Clemson -8.5)

At first blush, this match-up might seem to favor the men from South Carolina.  Surely a tiger would take down an overgrown dog, right? However, you have to remember that this is a wolf pack we are talking about here.

Here is a bunch of wolves taking down a bison:

Or attacking a guy with meat tied to his body:

Pick:    Take the wolf pack getting the points

#5 Oklahoma vs. #11 Oklahoma State (OK St. -1.5)

The annual "Bedlam" game matches up people in a wagon:

against a plastic headed cowboy with a gun.

Seems like a no brainer to me.  Folks who lived in sod houses against an honest to goodness cowboy.  My only issues is the fact that the OK State cowboy is always depicted as walking bowlegged as if he is really saddle sore or has severe groin area chafing.  That type of issue could cause a problem in the long run, but I'm betting on the cowboy having enough talc to get him through an win the day.

Pick:   Take the cowboys and lay the wood

#19 LSU vs. #2 Alabama (Bama -21.5)

Ok, so this game features tigers fighting a red tide of some sort.  I grew up on Long Island where the  shellfish industry is constantly being threatened by "red tide", which is just a really big, gross algae bloom.  It looks like this:

Would this bother a tiger at all?  How would a tiger take on an algae bloom?  I have no clue.  Maybe this is a good signal that 21.5 point a shitload of points to lay in a rivalry game.

Pick:  No bet

#13 Virginia Tech vs. #10 Miami (Miami -2.5)

This this game matches up turkeys against a storm of immense devastating power.  Does not really seem like a fair fight, even when you take into account the fact that the Hokies were once called the Fighting Gobblers.  Notwithstanding the fact that the Hokies might be a fighting foul/cock of some sort, I still think the 100+ mph winds of the hurricanes have the edge.

Pick:   Take the 'Canes

Gheorghemas Day 3: Three Scummers Picking

The final weekend on the College Football Season is upon us and frankly, I'm sad. College Football is my favorite sporting season and it also happens to be the shortest. Life is cruel like that sometimes. What am I supposed to make ill advised wagers on now? The NBA? College Basketball? Pffft. (Take Kansas -7.5 and the under in Lakers-Celtics tonight). Well, there's no sense in getting sentimental now. It's better to live, and bet, in the moment.

Wisconsin -4 vs. Ohio State
Despite my disdain for Urban Meyer, I had really begun to like this Buckeye team. JT Barrett was becoming a heck of a QB and I've always enjoyed watching Meyer's spread attack. Of course all that went to shit last weekend when Barrett broke his ankle against Michigan. Brady Hoke ruins everything, including his shirt whenever he eats. Now that Barrett is out, Ohio State turns to its 3rd string QB Cardale Jones. I don't know much about Cardale Jones but I know I'm not putting my money on him to beat Wisconsin. Oh, I also know this might be the greatest tweet ever sent out by a College Football player. On Wisconsin.

Kansas State +7 at Baylor
Baylor started the year like a house on fire, dismantling opponents and lighting up scoreboards. Now, you can attribute some of this to the nation's worst out of conference schedule but there's little denying that they were an offensive juggernaut. They've slowed since early October though as injuries along their OLine and inconsistency with QB Bryce Petty (these things are possibly related) slowed the offense and made Baylor a less impressive team. This is a large reason why the CFB Playoff Committee has them sitting behind TCU in the rankings as they've inexplicably placed the "eye test" above head to head results. Hopefully that won't matter after today and a Kansas State win in Waco. Whether that happens or not, I'm not sure. I will take the points and the Wildcats though.

FSU -4 vs. Georgia Tech
I haven't consistently gotten much right with my CFB wagers this year but I've been on the "bet against FSU" train since Week 2 and it's been very, very good to me. This is the week where I go the other way. Everybody is picking Georgia Tech and nearly universal agreement on an upset is more often than not a bad thing. On top of that, I've been predicting and FSU loss in the CFB Playoff all year, not the ACC Championship. The Seminoles win and cover.

Danimal
Sitting here listening to xmas music post bike-ride. Anyone else put their tree up and decorate it at 730 this morning? No, just my family? Purchased the tree last night at our Costco - $30, 8' tall. Beat that! Trees around here are outrageous, costing a minimum of $70-$80 for an 8-footer anywhere else, and getting well into the hundred for 10+. Fuck that. So I sucked it up and drive to the godforsaken place after work last night (my wife made me). It's about 20/25 miles from my home. It took my 75 minutes to get home, so I was pretty pleased. Told the wife, it's staying on my car tonight - I am NOT effing with it. She didn't press. But this morning she wasn't shy. "Ok, before you go on your ride, can you get the tree, trim bottom, put in stand, blah blah blah?" Sure, doll. So I did. It blew at the time. But it's done and my Saturday morning/afternoon which WAS going to be consumed with tree buying, decorating has been cleared.  I thought you all would like to know that.

Another season bids adieu. Sad that it is over, but I will admit that it will be nice not to sweat out these picks for a few weeks. Yeah, I'm inserting a hiatus in the season until the decent bowl games get started. I need to get my hunger back. Onward.

The lazy pick.
I agree with Mark on Wisconsin. I mean, that's just too risky. A 3rd string QB with 1 game under his belt, or less really. Bur Urban does cause me worry. He's good. Plain and simple. And it's not like Cardale isn't an athlete. But...it's a big unknown. Bet against big unknowns.
Wiscaaaansin

Houston at Cinci -7
Cincinnati is on a roll, winning their last 7 in a row straight up AND against the spread. Their QB Gunner Kiel most know by now is an ND transfer. When he left I thought, "big whoop - we got Golson." I'd like to rethink that now. So Gunner has 28 TD's, 11 INT's, and 2800 yards passing in his first year playing in college. Houston has a Top 10 D - this is a small concern but I will ride this Cinci train anyway. Regardless, this will be a good game to watch so don't pooh pooh it, mmmmkay? Give it a looksy.
Cinci

Florida State vs Ga Tech +4
Early this week, my thoughts were identical to Mark's. FSU is going to make a statement since being dropped to #4 in the polls. But in the last 24 hours I've come back home. FSU has almost lost to every mediocre or better team that they've played. I said early on that there is no way FSU gets through this entire season undefeated. Gosh darn it I am sticking to that edict! Joe-ja Tech is gonna put the sting on the 'Noles.

HI EVERYBODY. It's TJ here. I am a horrendous gambler, and therefore you should in no way use the following picks in real-life. Hell, I barely understand the "laying points" vs. "giving points" concept. So waste your money elsewhere, like on these spiffy socks.

I see Mark and Danimal picked the good games, so I will waste some (very few) words on two sure-to-be-classic contests (not. at. all.)

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos (-23.5) ... O/U (69.5)
WOOOOO THE MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP CAN YOU FEEL THE EXCITEMENT. You're getting a two-for-one special from me here (mainly because there aren't a lot of games left for me to pick - wait until you see the next choice below). From what I can gather, Boise State could be favored by 40 and folks would be taking them. They are 6-0 ATS at home this year (have been told this acronym means "against the spread"). Must be that god awful blue turf giving them super powers.
And along with being a fratty O/U, when the Broncos undoubtedly drop 50 in this game all we need is a measly three TDs from "the armpit of America"** to top that O/U line. Boise State has dropped 50 or more in four of the past five games - they've won their last two contests by a tidy sum of 113-33 (Wyoming and Utah State = poop emoji). Go all in. Bet the house. Bet the kids. Use your Xmas bonus on this one. Guaranteed sure-fire vinner.
Take Boise, and the Over. 
**please submit other candidates for AofA (armpit of America). my vote goes to Troy-let, NY

One more to come...it's an awful game...

5-6 Temple vs. 3-8 Tulane. Temple's favored by 3.5.
A Sugar Bowl matchup we are most definitely not getting. This game is brutal. What sort of degenerate gambles on the game? Temple has scored one touchdown in THEIR LAST 11 QUARTERS. The only touchdown Tulane has scored in the last two games was a garbage time TD in a 38-7 drubbing at the hands of Memphis. Temple is desperately trying to get win #6 so they can make the Carlsbad Canyonero Bowl - a big feat, since the Owls have only made two bowl games since 1979. But seriously, who the fuck cares about this game, absolutely no one I tell you. Fuck Temple and Fuck Bill Cosby. Take the Green Wave.

A Bettor's Guide to the NFL Divisional Playoffs

As the former producer and booking agent for the Z-Man and The Teej morning show, I thought it would be great if I could use my long list of celebrity contacts to get a special guest in here to give us their picks for this weekend’s NFL games.  Given the outcome of the bets listed in the comments section, God knows we need some help.  After flipping through the ol’ rolodex and reaching out to several hundred “stars” who did not call me back, I contacted Haywood Nelson. 

I can hear you already….”I can’t believe that Marls was able to get TV star and 70’s personality Haywood Nelson to be a guest picker on G:TB.   Rob interviewing LeBron James was cool and all, but Marls got the guy who played Dwayne (Hey, Hey, Hey) on “What’s Happening!!” and “What’s Happening Now!”.  

Unfortunately, Haywood didn't call me back either.  I suspect he might be busy working on the pilot for "What's Happening Again!!!".  However, all is not lost because not only did "What's Happening" have one of the great television intros of all time, it also gave us an almost foolproof formula for betting on NFL games - both of which can be seen in the attached clip.  

For those of you too lazy to watch the clip, the setup is that Dwayne, using his personal system (detailed at the 11:30 mark) has picked 5 NFL winners in a row against the spread.  This results in Rerun convincing his cranky, Ike Turner wannabe brother in law to bet his Hawaii vacation money ($500) on Tampa Bay as a three touchdown underdog to Oakland.  Only after the bets are placed does Dwayne reveal that his system consists of the following:

1. The Score:  Dwayne predicts the score by taking the attendance of each team's last home game and dividing it by the distance between the two stadiums and then subtracting the starting quarterback's number.  

2.  The Winner:  The winner of the game is determined who has the "fanciest" helmet.  In the event of equally fancy helmets, a coin is flipped.    

Needless to say, after Dwayne's system is revealed, hilarity ensues....sad, depressing 1970's economic recession hilarity.    You can watch the second half of the episode to get in on all the fun, but the Cliffs Notes version is that Oakland slaughters Tampa and Rerun gets a job working at the bookie's pizza parlor to help pay back his brother in law.  Hilarious, right?

However, what is lost in the shuffle is that using his system Dwayne was still 5-1, a record that most folks around these parts would kill for.  Therefore, using google maps, NFL attendance info, and a little subjective helmet evaluation I have broken down this weeks playoff games.  You can thank me later.   Without further ado, the picks...

Based on this handy dandy chart, we already know what the score is going to be.  This distances between stadium were determined using the shortest driving directions.  

Baltimore at Denver (-10) 

Dwayne has this one ending up with a final score of 38-28.  Looks like the blowout predicted by the line until you realize that the smug little raven with feather detail is much more fancy than the overly stylized horse.   Too bad the Broncos dropped their old school helmets with big D and the bronco reared up and getting frisky.  Now that was fancy.  That means the Ravens move on and Ray Lewis gets to play another day.  

PICK:  Take the Ravens & the points.  

Green Bay at San Francisco (-2.5)

The Saturday night game pits teams with two of the most unfancy helmets in the league.  I almost used Dwayne's coin flip method for this one until I realized that the Green Bay helmet looks like it was designed by a third grader with two Mr. Sketch "smelly markers" (lemon & apple) and a short attention span.  San Fran's helmet wins the fancy battle and the game, 24-20.

PICK:  Take the 49'ers and lay the points.  

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5) 

If the oracle of Watts is to be believed, the score of this game will be 24-22.  Of course, Dwayne admits to Raj and Rerun that he has only hit the exact score once.  However, considering that the New York Times went 0-520 in 2000 and 2001 trying to predict final scores, I would say that 1 for 6 is pretty darn good.   Since this looks to be a two point  game, it does not really matter which helmet is more fancy.  

PICK: Take the Seahawks and the points.  

Houston @ New England (-9.5)

This is arguably the matchup of the two fanciest helmets left in the the playoffs.  The remaining "fancy lads" if you will.  Both feature a prominent star and red, white and blue stylized version of what they are trying to depict.  Tough call.  In the end, I went with Texans, mainly because I think Dwayne would be upset that the Pats abandoned one of the fanciest helmets of all time when they ditched Pat the Patriot.  Texans win 31-25.

PICK: Take the Texans and the points.  

Next week I'll be back with Brandon Walsh and Nat from the Peach Pit to break down the conference championship games.  

@BaconBaking, NFL Pick Expert

My inability to gamble is well-documented in this space. So this year, I smartened up and asked the wife to make the weekly picks. Only two weeks for this to pay dividends, as you will see below:

Winning one week nets us $150. I will not even pretend to make a pick the rest of the season.

As an aside, I did make one pick this weekend, in my Survivor Pool. I switched the Giants (which the wife had chosen) to the Patriots. I think we all know how that turned out.

More (losing) hoops picks

It's reached the point in the season where I've watched enough college basketball that I should not be going 4-4 every week... at least that's what you would think. Time to put all those hours in front of the TV to good use. The goal is 6-2 or better each week for the rest of the year:

Marquette at Georgetown
Georgetown. Let's start the ball rolling by choosing the Hoyas to win Saturday's matinee against a very good Marquette team. I do love Dominic James and his other backcourt cohorts, but I'm giving JT3's team the edge at home tomorrow. Hibbert, Green and a few timely bombs from Wallace or Sapp should do it.

UCLA at West Virginia
UCLA. Has anyone noticed the two teams from last year's Finals also just happen to be the two best teams this year as well? (yes, I am putting UCLA and Florida above Wisconsin and North Carolina) That doesn't happen too much anymore. By the way, this is not the WVU team you remember - yes, they still take a ton of threes, run precise offensive sets and have goofy white dudes, but it's mainly underclassman and they're terribly inconsistent.

Illinois at Indiana
Indiana. The Hoosiers are a perfect 12-0 at home, Illinois is 2-4 on the road, and most importantly Indiana wants to avenge their 51-43 loss two weeks ago to the Illini. Indiana wins this game and the schedule really opens up for a strong February.

Creighton at Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois. MVC powers clash...and since I still don't know enough about a conference that might send 4 or 5 teams to the Dance, I'll take the home team (who apparently have a 6 game winning streak...niiiiiice). Go Salukis.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State. Time for JamesOn to get the Cowboys back OnTrack. As with any Texas Tech game, there is always a possibility Bob Knight will go insane and potentially punch someone in the face, in this case poor Sean Sutton.

Florida at Kentucky
Florida. See love for UCLA above. Who cares if the Gators are on the road, they have the better team. Randolph Morris is going to get battered and abused by Noah and Horford. By the way, Lee Humphrey is making 70% of his threes in conference play. That is not a typo.

Xavier at Gheorghe Washington
GW. I don't know why I'm taking Gheorghe Washington in this "battle" for (sucky) conference supremacy. Let's see...GW is 9-0 at home, Xavier is 2-5 on the road. Good enough for me.

Duke at Maryland
Maryland. My lack of love for Duke has me taking the tumbling Terps. If this game is at Cameron I have Duke winning by double digits, but I'm taking a chance here that Gary finally gets through to his kids prior to this season-defining game. It's time for the seniors to step up (Strawberry, Ibekwe and Jones).