Sunday, November 29, 2015

Gheorghe Explains the Elections: Part IV

I'm no social scientist. Seeing as how I'm sitting here alone on a Saturday night, drinking by myself, you could argue that I'm barely social. But I do fancy myself a connoisseur of common sense, a student of simplicity, an observer of the obvious. (An asshole for alliteration, even.)

We've offered explanations in these pages for the frothing absurdity of the American presidential election, trying to find meaning in the alternately absurd and depressing spectacle of the GOP primaries. Far more august publications have done the same, as everyone with a byline has taken a run at understanding the inchoate rage of the largely white, largely middle class base of the modern conservative movement.

For my money, nobody's answer is better than the one recently offered by Princeton economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case. Their recent study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences earlier this month, details a sharp increase in the mortality rate for white men and women 45 to 54 years old with less than a college education between 1999 and 2013. According to the Washington Post, "An increase in the mortality rate for any large demographic group in an advanced nation has been virtually unheard of in recent decades, with the exception of Russian men after the collapse of the Soviet Union."

More ominously, and perhaps more telling in terms of the broader societal implication, is the authors' hypothesis for the cause of increased mortality rates for a group that makes up nearly 40% of the U.S. population. Noting that the rise in mortality for the demographic cohort in question is driven by drug and alcohol-related illness and increased suicide rates, Deaton and Case surmise that financial strain is the culprit. As Olga Khazan explains in The Atlantic, "Jobs in fields like manufacturing and construction, which were historically filled by people without college degrees, have been evaporating quickly over the past 15 years. [L]ess-educated people are more likely to be unemployed and to make less, so they struggle to afford things like therapy, gym memberships, and recreation that isn’t drugs. Without jobs, they may lack the social networks and sense of purpose that have shown to reduce mortality.

Nearly half of Americans in their 40s and 50s don’t have enough money saved for retirement to live as they’re accustomed to, even if they work until they’re 65. All of this is crashing down on Boomers, who were raised on the promise of the American Dream."

Deaton sums up his findings simply and starkly, saying that "half a million people are dead who should not be dead."

A generation of Americans may not be aware as a group of these statistics, but they're certainly individually cognizant of the fact that their friends are dying, and of a sense of demographic despair. At the same time, they lack a voice, something that's the province of the elites, the degreed, the financially secure. They're scared, and they're pissed, and they're lashing out at a world that's operating under new rules.

And it's hard to blame them for what's a genuinely human response to a brutally real, personally frightening, and seemingly intractable problem.

There are no easy answers here. The perfect storm of generational anxiety and political opportunism predicts a bleak 2016 presidential campaign.

Where we go from there is anyone's guess.

30 comments:

zman said...

If Taylor Swift married Jon Hamm she would be Taylor Hamm. I think that would make her music more palatable.

Whitney said...

All things considered, Taylor Swift's music is more palatable than most of the emanations coming from my kids' radios. (Or the current equivalent devices.)

If Porky Pig married Esther Rolle and took her name, he'd be Pork Rolle. Yeah, that was really too big of a stretch. But it was a late night in NJ.

rob said...

if john hamm married nicole egbert, they'd be the hamm-eggerts.

rob said...

or jon hamm and nicole eggert. either way.

rob said...

zman may well be aware of this, but i wasn't. andy murray just won the deciding match to give great britain its first davis cup win since 1936. that murray cat's going to go down as a legend on his home island.

Whitney said...

Speaking of Pork Roll, Egg, & Cheese (also the name of our side band) Dean and Gene Ween have mended their fences. Tour 2016. Dave and I are in.

rob said...

if jon hamm were sleeping with tina fey, it'd be hamm on wry.

Clarence said...

If Jon Hamm and Roger Federer double teamed the only living Golden Girl, it'd be Hamm & Swiss on White.

rob said...

if the star of footloose and a hall of fame running back got together with a lammie fave, it'd be bacon, bettis and little tomato.

rob said...

any brilliant ideas about how to get a stubborn bolt off of a toilet bowl without destroying the whole thing?

zman said...

Spray the heck out of it with WD-40.

Danimal said...

Or some warm butter. That should work.

Danimal said...

And if out of WD-40, I've got some W-Deez 40. Just hit me up.

Danimal said...

Twice Bortles has crossed the line of scrimmage in the red zone before throwing a pass. And the first time he did it he was, oh about 5 yards past it. 5! 4 field goals today...all red zone.

Danimal said...

Am I to the point where I want Blaine Gabbert back? Getting close.

Danimal said...

If Zach Galifinakis were to do a parody of an nfl qb, he would base it off of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Danimal said...

Yup...still me here. Hanging out. Sunday night.

zman said...

I see you Danimal. NFC East is a mess

TR said...

I liked Fitzpatrick better when he had his "Thomas Jain playing Todd Parker" facial hair going on. But with that said, he played well today against the turd sandwich that is the Fins.

And if you don't understand that reference, I probably don't like you.

Keep bringing the jokes, Danimal. I'm half in the bag in a hotel room near the Denver airport.

rob said...

red bulls scored in stoppage time then literally were inches away from the equalizer one minute later. bonkers ending in harrison.

TR said...

The Gruden, Pagano, O'Brien and Reid rallies this year are all incredible. I figured most were toast as coaches.

Danimal said...

Speaking of rallies, when you take into account 2 of my pre-season prop bets with the jags making playoffs and nd winning it all, I went 1-9-1 last week on wagers. I defy anyone to do the same over 11 bets. You can't do it. The good news....I can get it all back tonight.

zman said...

GTB poppin off today.

rob said...

everybody's saving up for the first day of gheorghemas

mr kq said...

Danimal - got a site for ya as soon as I get out of this nasty ass commute.

Danimal said...

It pays losing?
Despite the awful week, still in the plus column on 2015.

Clarence said...

ORF Rock

Wodustudios.com

Squeaky said...

Damn it keep missing the ORF Rock! And I can't believe "... And Out Come the Wolves" is 20 years old but the remastered album sounds really good.

Clarence said...

Anybody watch the end of the MNF game? I saw only the last few plays. Insane ending. Did they review the TD? His foot was very close to being out. And for a league of refs that virtually never let a punt go by without whistling a block in the back, they missed a game changing one there. Eh, Ravens Browns. Nobody's watching, anyway.

Danimal said...

1-0 on the week. No review necessary.