This Week in Wrenball: Resolutions

Out of conference schedules for mid-major leagues like the CAA are essentially equivalent to preseason NFL games. In all but the most rare of years, non-league play serves to prepare teams for a conference slate that will determine which single team will make the NCAA Tournament.

That's not to say that OOC play isn't entirely meaningless. Non-con action reveals important strengths and weaknesses, and gives coaches a sense of where they need to improve.

In the case of our Wrens, we've already highlighted the issue that Tony Shaver's got to fix. He knows it, too. After W&M lost, 69-62, at Old Dominion, the Tribe head man said, "[W]e're not tough enough to win these games on the road right now. We knew coming into this game, the No. 1 statistic, the most vital thing we could do was rebound the ball and we gave up 15 offensive rebounds and 20 second-chance points. We've got no chance to win if we do that."

Then, W&M headed to Chapel Hill, gave up 20 of the game's first 24 points, and got trucked by North Carolina, 86-64. Was the Tribe going to beat UNC, even with a great effort? Unlikely. And did they show some heart in trimming a 25-point second-half deficit to 9? For sure. But that's some cold comfort from a team that's shown an inability to close against even semi-tough road opponents.

In our preseason preview, we said that we'd be perfectly happy with a 5-5 non-con record (because we don't count very well), "so long as it looks like progress, and we've figured out how we're going to defend the post."

I prefer mine medium rare, to be honest

W&M beat the teams they should've, and didn't get a single win against a stretch opponent. The jury's still out on post defense, as the Tribe really didn't play a big guy worth anything, other than Carolina's large and talented frontcourt. So I guess we're not perfectly happy. We're perfectly medium, with a side of apprehension.

FOG:TB Dan Crain is the proprietor of the oft-caustic, generally frustrated Dragons Speak (you would be, too, if Bruiser Flint was your coach and all your best players kept getting hurt), a Drexel hoops blog. He's also a really smart hoops mind who knows the CAA well. He just did a CAA season preview, in which he nails W&M's outlook: "They can't box out your grandmother, so they better make the first shot because they won't get a second.  A team that is this reliant on shooting makes their margin of error much too thin to be considered a favorite, and should struggle on the road where shooting percentages generally decline."

Crain still picks W&M to finish second in the (admittedly not very strong) CAA, banking on the Tribe win 8 at home and 4 on the road. I can't say at this moment that I'm that optimistic. I see a team that's got a lot of offensive talent, but isn't very tough, outside of Terry Tarpey. I see a sophomore in Omar Prewitt who should be taking a leap from a terrific freshman season, but seems to have regressed, shooting .271 from deep and .556 from the line. I see no depth whatsoever in the frontcourt, and actually very little depth in general. Shaver really only seems to trust eight players, and those last two might be a reach. The four games in eight days run to kick off the CAA season will test the roster.

On the plus side, and it isn't all worrisome, I still see Marcus Thornton, averaging 19.1 ppg and shaking off a slow shooting start to make 42.7% of his threes. I also see a sophomore who is taking a leap after showing late-season glimpses of promise. Daniel Dixon is the team's second-leading scorer, averaging 11.5 ppg and making 50% of his threes. If he's what he's seemed to be in the early going, and Prewitt shakes of his funk, the Tribe's got three scorers the equal of anyone in the league.

That early-season sprint, while grueling physically, doesn't require the Tribe to match up against any of the CAA's preseason favorites. W&M hosts the College of Charleston today travels to play at Drexel and at Elon, and returns home to take on JMU. A team with top-tier league aspirations wins at least three of those.

And a team with top-tier league aspirations resolves to show some resolve.