Preview of EPL Relegation Battle Sunday

With one week left in the 2010-11 EPL season, Manchester United has been crowned champion. But we're not here to talk about them. We're here to discuss the losers clubs in the league. Man U will field a squad of reserves to play a match this Sunday that is totally meaningless to them, yet profoundly important to their opponent, 17th place Blackpool. Blackpool is one of three teams tied for 17th-19th place with 39 points (others are Birmingham and Wigan Athletic). Two of these three teams will join West Ham and be relegated to the Championship League next year. In the event some teams remain tied in points, the first tiebreaker is goal differential. The three teams in the mix have goal differentials of -20 to -22. So all three of these teams will have to win big or cross their fingers they don't get dumped.

Our friend at the cyber-carcass once known as the Wheelhouse has discussed this process in more detail than me in the past, but it is worth repeating that the stakes are enormous for these teams. By keeping their membership in the EPL, the teams secure themselves a hefty revenue stream for TV rights, increased merchandise sales, larger-breasted groupies and all the other good stuff that comes from playing in a larger league.

So what do we have on tap this weekend? Here are the three matches affecting relegation. If you plan to watch any/all of these, be warned that all league matches will start at the same time (11 AM ET on Sunday) to avoid teams changing strategy based on prior results in the week.

Birmingham (-20 goal differential) @ Tottenham Hotspur. Unfortunately for Birmingham, this game has meaning for Tottenham, as it looks to lock up a 5th place finish and secure a place in next year's Europa League, the junior version of the Champions League. Despite possibly qualifying for this tourney, this year is disappointing for a squad that thought it could climb to the top four in the standings again and make a repeat showing at next year's Champions League tournament, after an impressive quarterfinals visit in this year's tourney. But the team still had an admirable year and will be playing in front of its home fans, who will likely be okay with the Europa League, where Spurs has the potential to dominate. Birmingham will need to sack up and show it belongs in the EPL. The squad has absolutely fallen apart to slide into the relegation zone. It has earned only 1 point in its last 5 matches. They will need to stop one of the best young players in the league, rising English star Gareth Bale. And they won't.
Prediction: 3-0 victory for Spurs.


Blackpool (-21 goal differential) @ Manchester United. Blackpool may have the toughest match-up of the teams in danger, but this game is merely a glorified exhibition for Man U. It has nothing to play for and will avoid exposing any valuable players to injury six days before the Champions League finals. But that said, Man U's reserves would probably be a mid-level squad in the EPL. And the match will be a rare showcase for some hungry youngsters auditioning for playing time next season. Blackpool has admirably fought over the last month to try to escape the cellar. It earned six points in its last four matches, including a 4-3 win last week against the (Michael) Bolton Wanderers. The team is showing some heart and some firepower, and we think it will hang in with the Man U back-ups.
Prediction: 2-2 tie.

Wigan Athletic (-22 goal differential) @ Stoke City. Stoke City is at the top of a log-jam in the middle of the standings, where the 9th-14th place teams are separated by only two points. They may have some financial motivation to hold down 9th place, but that would involve work on my end. And, as we know, this is difficult to do with the internet. And I am lazy. So we'll just assume they have little to play for. Stoke City has gone 2-2-2 in their last six, proving they are every bit as average as we think they are. Wigan Athletic, the worst positioned team facing relegation, has played pretty well recently, going 2-1-2 in its last five matches. It beat West Ham 3-2 last week to secure West Ham's relegation, which is like beating up a special ed kid to feel better about yourself. But Stoke City is no punching bag. It is more like Warren.
Prediction: 2-1 victory for Stoke City. Franks and beans, bitches.

Conclusion.Based on my inane and ignorant predictions, we have Blackpool edging out Birmingham and Wigan Athletic. So apologies to Birmingham, the city that spawned Black Sabbath, and Wigan, the city that spawned the World Pie Eating Competition. And Kajagoogoo. For reals.


We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming. Look for a Champions League preview post, which has a 40% chance of seeing the light of day.