This Week in Wrenball: Back to the Future

The 2019-20 Wrens' season was a rollercoaster. It started under a cloud, the wound from Tony Shaver's unceremonious and undeserved firing still fresh. (Karma, it turns out, is still a bitch.) The Tribe lost multiple important parts from a team that was widely considered the favorite to win the CAA to transfers in the wake of Shaver's dismissal.

Dane Fischer took the job and inherited a dispirited fanbase and a decimated roster. He and his staff dug in and secured commitments from three key transfers: Andy Van Vliet, Bryce Barnes, and Tyler Hamilton came to campus to support Nathan Knight. And W&M started the season 4-0, and probably should've beaten Oklahoma in Norman. 

The rest of the non-conference schedule was a bit of a plateau, with a blowout loss to Stanford balanced by a thrashing of Old Dominion, until W&M dropped its final two pre-league games to St. Joe's and St. Francis (PA), neither powerhouses.

But those letdowns were followed by six straight wins to begin CAA play, which were followed by a 2-5 stretch that included losses to mediocre Drexel and UNCW teams. And of course, Fischer's guys rebounded to win their final five games of the season to finish with a 13-5 league record, good for the second seed in the first CAA Tournament to be played in Washington, DC.

Where the Tribe lost to an Elon team it beat twice during the regular season, including 10 days prior to the first round of the tournament. That loss on March 8 was the last time I was in a sports arena in 2020.

Well done, @wmsportsblog

Dane Fischer, regardless of the circumstances of his hire, can really coach. Nathan Knight is the best player in W&M history. The first of those will be put to the test this season. The second is the reason.

Knight's draft-day signing by the Atlanta Hawks makes three W&M players in five years inking deals with NBA teams (Marcus Thornton and Daniel Dixon both had deals with the Boston Celtics.) His departure, along with the 7'0" Van Vliet, Barnes, and Hamilton change both W&M's roster and Fischer's options at both ends of the court.

The Tribe head man will have to figure out how to replace 54% of his team's minutes, 64.2% of its made field goals, 71.6% of its made free throws, 68.2% of its rebounds, 57.9% of its assists, 85.2% of its blocks, 68.8% of its steals, and 63.3% of its points. The 2020-21 Tribe has one senior who played more than 9 minutes last year. That player, Luke Loewe, made huge strides last season as a complimentary option, hitting 43.9% of his threes and scoring 10.7 ppg, while making the CAA's All-Defensive team. It remains a very open question whether Loewe can be as productive while playing a more central role offensively.

For this half-assed blogger's money, the key to whether the Tribe will live down to preseason predictions (the league's coaches and nearly every observer tap W&M to finish 10th of 10 teams in the CAA) is whether Thornton Scott can stay healthy and produce at a different level. Scott has flashed impressive skill at times during his first two seasons in green and gold, but he only played 19 games last season, and various injuries limited him to 7.3 ppg. Even with the limited playing time, Scott was second on the team in assists, averaging more than four per game.

Thornton Scott, the key

Quinn Blair and Miguel Ayesa didn't start a single game between them, and averaged 4.8 and 4.6 ppg, respectively. Blair's a grinder, and Ayesa can shoot it, but asking them to make a big leap may well be a question we don't want answered.

Incoming freshman Yuri Covington (a touted 6'1" point guard), Jake Milkereit (6'5" wing), Connor Kochera (6'5" guard) and redshirt frosh Ben Wight (6'9" forward/center) will all likely get a chance to earn significant minutes. At least two of them have to be big contributors for the Tribe to be anything more than bad.

With only three players 6'7" or taller, the Tribe's ability to protect the rim and get to the glass will change dramatically. There are multiple potential lineup combinations for Fischer that will see five players all around 6'5" on the floor, running interchangeable offensive and defensive concepts. If 2019-20 was the story of twin towers and team chemistry, 2020-21 will be very much a test of Dane Fischer's chops.

Says here that anything better than 10 wins in the Wrens' 26 scheduled games would be impressive. Also says here that playing more than half of those 26 games might constitute good fortune. I'm afraid that Nathan Knight's professional contract may well be the highlight of the season for Tribe fans.

W&M kicks off the season at ODU this evening. Tribe thumped the Monarchs by 17 last year. Tribe will not thump the Monarchs by 17 this year.