Fin

We are what our record says we are.

Gheorghe Explains: An Election Prediction

I don't know if this is wishcasting or manifesting or some sort of masochistic tempting of fate (though I suspect my actions will have no impact on the results of the election - I only have the power to affect Red Sox games), but I'm going to go forth regardless.

As you'll cast your memory back a ways, you'll remember that we called the 2016 election for That Fucking Guy well before nearly anyone else did. I'm accustomed to being right. Just not used to hating myself for it.

In 2020, I was fairly confident that Uncle Joe would win, but that didn't stop me from stress-drinking on election night. And the next several nights until the election was called officially on Saturday. At which point I celebration-drank. 

Given these bona fides, I suppose I owe you my take on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. I've crunched the numbers. Read the tea leaves. Consulted the oracle. And here's the headline.

Righteously Pissed Off Women Carry Kamala Harris to the Presidency.

I'm not gonna spend a ton of pixels on detailed analysis. I'm not qualified, there are better outlets for that, and I'm notoriously lazy. But recall that Democrats have nearly universally outperformed polls and historical performance in major elections since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. Understand that the gender gap being reported in early voting is substantial. Know that the Harris campaign has run a broad, disciplined, thoughtful (and not cocky - I still blame you, Robby Mook) race in a short amount of time. Recognize the electoral truism that the campaign that seems to have momentum often wins, that the end-of-race vibes matter, and watch the GOP ticket flailing about defending a squirrel-porn enthusiast and simulating fellatio* at a late-campaign rally. Add to that mix a handful of really wild polls (including Iowa's most trusted pollster finding Harris +3 in their final analysis - I don't think she wins Iowa, but if it's even -3 in Iowa, it's a rout where it matters), and I think there's a comprehensive body of evidence supporting at least a modicum of confidence in the Vice President's chances.

* I swear to God both of those things have happened within the past week.

I do believe that it's a very tight race. As much as it makes me sick to my stomach, the MAGA standard bearer could win. And if he doesn't, I expect nasty shit to go down across the nation. But as God is my witness, I think it goes the other way. From my keyboard to the electoral deity's ears, for my kids and yours.

Distraction

Lots to report on from our trip to Nashville, which lived up to the hype in terms of food, music, and revelry, and in my wife's case, profligate spending of money on clothes. Since I've got to actually do some work today, I'll share a video in honor of our friend Erin getting us kicked out of Tootsie's on Broadway. 

Here's hoping the law wins tomorrow, too.

Wrenball: A Preview

They’ve endured mostly lean times at William and Mary World Basketball Headquarters since She Who Shall Not Be Named blew up the competitive structure at the end of the last decade and went the entry-level route, with predictably dismal results. A change in leadership and a group of returning players intrigued by the new guy created a different vibe and the notion that Tribe hoops may be more than an innocuous winter diversion. 

School brass finally pulled the plug on the Dane Fischer Experiment and landed Cornell Big Whistle Brian Earl, whose Kaplan Arena debut is Nov. 4 against Dickinson College. A coach with a sub-.500 career record probably doesn’t qualify as a home run hire, but for William and Mary it’s inarguably an extra-base hit. 

Earl built and ran a solid program at a school with a comparable footprint. His last three years at Cornell produced a 54-30 overall record, 25-17 in the Ivy League. Last season’s Big Red won 22 games and earned the program’s first NIT invite. He seemed to have hit upon a formula, or at least assembled a quality group, which makes his decision to jump to a struggling program with limited success over the years curious. 

I’m generally loath to speculate without actual reporting and informed conversations, but I suspect that he thought the Big Red had approached its ceiling, while William and Mary has ample room above. Resources at any Ivy program not named Princeton, Harvard or Yale are limited. The Ivy does not permit redshirting. The transfer portal throughout the league is more egress than ingress. Earl now has a honeymoon with a supportive administration and greater roster flexibility, coupled with an attractive style of play that doesn’t require supreme size or athleticism. 

His teams play quickly, attempt to force the pace with pressure defense, and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Cornell last season was sixth nationally in 3-point attempts per game (29.7), 10th in 3-pointers made per game (10.3), sixth in assists (18.1) and 16th in scoring (82.1 ppg). The Big Red ranked in the top 25 in adjusted tempo the past three seasons, according to stats guru Ken Pomeroy, and last season had the sixth-shortest average possession time (15 seconds) in Division I; conversely, the Tribe was No. 299 in possession time. 

Earl, a Princeton grad and Ivy League Player of the Year in 1999, has said that he does not aim to duplicate what his Cornell teams did – different personnel and all that – but that the style of play at W&M will rhyme with what they did in Ithaca. Players have spoken positively in preseason about goosed tempo and playing faster. The Tribe has nine new players – five transfers, four freshmen – but it’s a core group of upperclass returnees that likely will dictate results. 

Five players with a combined 156 career starts and that accounted for 60 percent of last season’s scoring output give Earl more experience and built-in camaraderie than many new coaches inherit. Start with brothers Gabe and Caleb Dorsey and Chase Lowe. Gabe Dorsey (14 ppg) is a versatile 6-6 wing whose 113 3-pointers last season ranked fourth nationally and was named preseason first-team all-conference. Brother Caleb (7 ppg, 6 rpg) is a 6-8, 235-pound forward who started 27 games last season. Lowe, a 6-5 junior, averaged 12.5 points and team highs in both rebounding (7.3) and assists (3.2). Noah Collier, a 6-8 senior, is healthy again after his last season-and-a-half was scuttled by injuries. He averaged 9.0 ppg and 8.2 rpg two seasons ago. Senior 6-5 wing Matteus Case (6.8 ppg, 4 rpg) averaged 27 minutes per game last season. 

The transfer class is heavy on versatility and 3-point shooting. Keller Boothby, a 6-7 grad student who accompanied Earl from Cornell, averaged 5.5 ppg and shot 41 percent from 3-point range. Kyle Pulliam, a 6-5 junior, averaged 14.3 ppg and shot 44 percent from 3 at D2 St. Thomas Aquinas, while 6-3 junior Kyle Frazier (10.1 ppg) shot 39 percent from 3 at D2 Belmont Abbey. Malachi Ndur, a 6-8, 225-pound grad student from Brown, averaged 4 points and 3 rebounds per game and shot 35 percent from 3. Finn Lally, a 6-9 native of New Zealand, averaged 9 points and 5.3 rebounds per game at regional junior college power Trinidad State in Colorado. 

Overall, there is sufficient length to be at least a nuisance defensively. The Tribe was picked to finish seventh out of 14 teams in the distended conglomerate that’s now the Coastal Athletic Association, which seems equal parts acknowledgement of returning production and healthy skepticism due to recent lower-tier finishes and a new coach. The non-conference schedule is largely state and regional schools (Old Dominion, VCU, Richmond, Radford, Norfolk State, Appalachian State, Navy, a tournament at Winthrop) and a marquee step up versus 2024 Final Four party crasher N.C. State, followed by the 18-game CAA slate. 

No telling what to expect from the Tribe other than a fresh look and a slew of new faces, including a coach with a vision who appears to know what he’s doing. After four grim seasons, that’s a healthy start.

zBouillabaise

zBouillabaise is back!

1. zkids

Everyone else here has kids that are good at cool things.  I have little to brag about though, my kids have little talent.  zson's lone God-given gift reared its head at a Cub Scout meeting about 5 years ago when they had to try to use flint and steel to make a fire.  He went from kindling to roaring inferno in about two strikes of the metal and 15 seconds of puffing.  None of the other kids, or their parents, could do it so he went around starting fires for everyone else.  So he has a future in arsonry and insurance fraud.

And zdaughter's secret skill surfaced recently!  She went to a laser tag birthday party, winning all five rounds with the most confirmed kills in each round.  She was named MVP!  Now she's convinced that she's a Mandalorian.  So she has a future in warfare and bounty hunting.  Here's an action photo from my basement.

2. I read a book

I read a book and you should read it too.  FOGTB the DLC's wife wrote Grown Women and it's phenomenal.  I can't believe I know anyone who can write so much so well.  The novel spans a forty-some-odd year arc of time in the lives of a family of four generations of women and the dysfunction between them.  Their relationships get hectic but the end made me smile.  I'll let the Daves write a proper analysis after they read it.

3. zcats

zcats have a YouTube channel.  There's a lot of snuggling and slapboxing involved but I foresee lots of ping pong ball content soon.  I can't embed any of the videos because they're all "shorts," whatever the hell that means.

Distracting the Fuck Out of Y'all

Today's entry in the catalog of things to take our minds off of all the things takes us to a place we already visit quite a bit. One could say we're experts in the subject, but I've never seen it studied quite so deeply.

I'm talking about swearing. 

And so is Jack Grieve, a foreign linguistics professor at Aston University in Birmingham, UK. Grieve examined nearly 9 million geocoded tweets to assess the relative frequency of different curse words in different parts of the U.S. Here's fuck, for example:

You'll not be shocked to learn that nearly every Gheorghie lives in a high fuck region.

From a post at the swearing-focused blog (and you thought *we* were niche) Strong Language, here's a bit more detail.

Hell, damn and bitch are especially popular in the south and southeast. Douche is relatively common in northern states. Bastard is beloved in Maine and New Hampshire, and those states – together with a band across southern Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas – are the areas of particular motherfucker favour. Crap is more popular inland, fuck along the coasts. Fuckboy – a rising star* – is also mainly a coastal thing, so far.

The post has a bunch of maps showing the regional frequency of other terms, like damn, douche, asshole, and motherfucker. It's a really fucking nice way to distract yourself. Enjoy. 

Gheorghasord: Lighten Up

The next two weeks...hoo boy. It's gonna feel like two decades, and most of it ain't gonna be fun. So as a public service (and if you think about it, serving the public is what we're all about here - that, and the occasional invitation to a cool movie screening), we're here to provide a few things to take your mind off of the election and a couple election-related things that'll make you smile amidst the onslaught of things that make you nervous and wanting to slam your head against a bridge piling.

Let's start with the political, first with Coach Tim Walz going all Coach Tim Walz on Elon Musk:

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If I still played Fantasy Football, Skipping Dipshits might make for a solid team name. Almost as good as Dorking Wanderers.

In other amusing politico tricks, check out the former guy busting out a little Eminem:

Moving on to distractions non-political, the first 30 seconds of the most recent episode of We Defy Augury offers an audioscape highlighted by sweat running down Dave's hairy ass. If that won't take your mind off of things, you're some kind of mutant. It does get better from there, but the theme of distraction stays present, as our man plumbs the horror novel genre for insight. It's a good one. Once you get through the first minute.

And finally, by the time this goes to print, we'll have a bit better idea of whether our guy Joel Dahmen is likely to keep his TOUR card for the 2025 season. On the one hand, he's raised his profile substantially in the wake of the Netflix Full Swing series, grabbing endorsements from The Finnish Long Drink, Bushmills, and MGM Resorts, among others. But that exposure came with a price. Dahmen's on-course play hasn't been very good for a while, and after a string of mid-table finishes, he entered this evening's second round play at the ZOZO Championship (this evening, because it's in Japan) outside the top 125 on the FedEx points list, the cut line for full TOUR membership the following season. 

Dahmen finished the first round tied for 52nd at one over par. He's gonna need to move up 10-15 places over the rest of the tournament to guarantee another year on TOUR. Get it, Joel.