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Ireland enter the tournament the top ranked team in the world, but Opta's algorithm gives four nations better than 20% odds to win the event: Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand. Given that the US failed to qualify for this quadrennial, we'll be saved the ignominy of whiffing twice on Uncle Sam's teams in one summer. Small mercies.
The South Africans are the holders, having beaten England, 32-12, in the final in Tokyo to capture their third title. The Springboks enter the tournament on a roll, coming off a 35-7 win over New Zealand at Twickingham in England and a 52-16 win over Wales in Cardiff. The All-Blacks loss was the worst in their storied history.
The hosts roll in on good form, as well, though they'll be without stellar fly-half Romain Ntamack. Antoine Dupont will carry an increased responsibility, and as he's generally acknowledged as the best player in the world, that's not all bad for France. England, Scotland, Australia, and Argentina are in with a puncher's chance, thought there's some distance between them and the top four sides.
On with it, then:
Pool A:
France and New Zealand advance over Italy, Uruguay, and Namibia
Pool B:
In an impossibly difficult group (three of the teams are ranked in the world's top 5, including the top 2), Ireland and Scotland(!) come through, leaving South Africa on the outside looking in. This pick is in no way influenced by the fact that the only major rugby match I've ever seen in person involved Ireland and Scotland.
Pool C:
Australia and Fiji thank their lucky stars and the ping pong ball gods that they're in a group with Wales, Georgia, and Portugal. Kirby Smart is very confused.
Pool D:
England and the Argies renew the Falklands thing and make it out regardless. Samoa, Chile, and Japan head home.
Quarterfinals:
The "left" side of the bracket is a damn gauntlet. The teams that advance from Pools C and D will have a relative walk in the park, if such a walk included bruises.
France over Scotland
Ireland over New Zealand (it's a scorcher)
Australia over Argentina
Fiji over England
Semifinals:
Ireland over France
Australia over Fiji
Final:
Ireland over Australia
Fields of Athenry rings out across Paris as the Green close out one of the most purple patches in Ireland rugby history by lifting their first ever Webb Ellis trophy, and breaking the New Zealand, Australia, England, and South Africa stranglehold on the trophy. And nobody will be able to say they didn't earn it.
I see NBC listed as the US broadcaster for this event. Presumably that means they'll stream via Peacock, no?
ReplyDeleteI doubt they'll allocate tons of network tv time for this, though I guess they are a bit starved for content.
peacock and cnbc, with two of the quarters and the final on big nbc.
ReplyDeletecolorado moves into the ap top 25. i'm obviously rooting for the buffs, but maybe we slow our roll juuuuust a little.
ReplyDeleteThe Irish sure looked strong when we saw them. But gauntlet is right.
ReplyDeleteyeah, that pick is totally with my heart and not my head. the irish were so mentally tough in that match against scotland. stuck with me. but the english, aussies, or fijians have a much easier path.
ReplyDeletecolorado playing at home on saturday in fox's big noon kickoff slot means that the game starts at 10:00 am local time. which means that the pregame telecast starts at 8:00 am. which means that my kid has to report in full uniform, fully made up at 5:15 am. the only times i was up at 5:15 am in college involved me being still awake from the previous evening. i don't envy her.
ReplyDeleteGood to see this - heading across the pond Friday for the week (work w/some play) - Scotland & England in reverse order. Will have a little more incentive to belly up at the pub mid-week.
ReplyDeleteAnd Rob, your daughter and cheer-mates won't need to set the alarm on Saturday. This will be the biggest day for CU fball since when? No need to feel sorry for her, they won't sleep a wink as it is.