Thursday, October 27, 2022

The Hard Pessimism of the Race to the Bottom...

or why i stopped worrying and started looking at Portuguese real estate.

My knack for understanding this country's political zeitgeist is well established. I saw the danger in Trump before most did. It's a gift, really. Or perhaps a curse. 

I'm so good at it, in fact, that I'm loath to make any predictions about the upcoming midterm elections for fear they'll come true. (There's a non-prediction prediction in there if you can read the runes.)

So this post isn't really a midterm preview. More along the lines of a lament, a continuation of a theme. To be blunt, we're even more fucked today than we were after the 2016 Presidential election, and for the life of me, I don't see a way out. At least not for the country. (Foreshadowing? Foreshadowing!)

Robby Mook was Hillary
Clinton's campaign manager
in 2016. Ironic, no?
We no longer have two functioning political parties. That was made manifestly obvious (if it wasn't already so) in the wake of the January 6 fuckflagration when nearly two-thirds of GOP House members voted not to accept the results of the Electoral College in defiance of common sense, scores of court cases showing no voting irregularities, and centuries of American history. It is impossible to negotiate with terrorists, even if the Democrats weren't feckless mooks.

The Republican Party used to stand for things, even if I didn't generally agree with those things. Small government, robust defense, fiscal conservatism, etc. Today's national GOP has no platform other than power so they can punish their enemies. This sounds insane, and yet it's accurate. Inchoate anti-Democrat/Let's Go Brandon rage is the modus operandi of the party of Lincoln, from backing Putin's war in the Ukraine for...reasons, to Don't Say Gay educational policies, to election denial and now ballot box intimidation, to Supreme Court Justices lying to gain their seats and tossing decades of settled law that will harm women, to...name the issue, and whatever the Democrats are for is satanic and must be burned at the stake.

There is no more visible and concrete evidence of the party's descent into unserious madness than its willingness to elevate the most ill-prepared and uninformed voices to serve as flagbearers for the movement. The only qualifications people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, and their ilk seem to have is their gleeful willingness to own the libs. Sending out Senate candidates like Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz betrays a different kind of cynicism, a belief that celebrity matters far more than substance, and the fact that both of those clowns are within the margin of error in their contests with proven public servants is sad and embarrassing in equal measure.

For their part, the Democrats in all their earnest do-goodery have proven absolutely not up to the task ofcombatting the aggressive lunacy of their opponents. They're playing by Marquess of Queensbury rules while the GOP is using dragons. And regardless of the nobility of one's cause, dragons are motherfuckers on the battlefield. The GOP is fighting with fire while the Dems reply with whimpering, simpering wishcasting. To wit, here's a sampling of the emails I've received from Dem pols this week:

  • "This is concerning, Rob." 
  • "I have nowhere else to turn."
  • "our ONLY chance"
  • "The absolute last thing I want to write to you about is Donald J. Trump, but..."
  • President Biden has emailed you. Speaker Pelosi has emailed you. Hillary Clinton has emailed you. Jamie Raskin has emailed you. Mary Trump has emailed you. Adam Schiff has emailed you. Martin Sheen has emailed you. And now we’re emailing again -- because with just 14 days left in this monumental election, things have taken a rough turn." [I do kinda like hearing from all these famous folks.]
In so many cases, Dems let the GOP dictate the terms of engagement. To be fair, a political media conditioned to focus on the optics of the horserace rather than substance is a willing, if inept, accomplice. Dems scream that the media should talk about the issues. The GOP sees the world as it is, adapts, and overperforms the electoral fundamentals. Over and over again. 

I don't have high hopes for next month's elections, for all of the above reasons. We're gonna wind up with 2020 election deniers in charge of elections in more than one state. We'll likely have at least a couple of January 6 insurrectionists in the goddamn U.S. House of Representatives. They say it gets darkest before dawn. 

Dawn in Lisbon sure does look appealing, no?

29 comments:

  1. True Fact: while in the hospital, John Fetterman tested positive for a certain toxin that caused his stroke. It has been proven that Dr. Oz had access to this type of toxin through his medical credentials. Dr. Oz poisoned his opponent so that he would win the election. We must stop this insidious criminal.
    STOP DOCTOR POISON!!
    STOP DOCTOR POISON!!

    We know how to play the game, we just aren’t scummy enough to do it.

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  2. He didn’t poison Fetterman but Oz is a puppy slaughter, in case you weren’t aware: https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/04/dr-oz-dogs-us-senate-pennsylvania-john-fetterman

    Rob, I agree with everything you say about the republicans. I just can’t get behind the Dems as a lesser of two evils argument. Both of these parties have been trundling towards the abyss for a long time now. The republicans had a head start and got there first but the Dems have been playing catch up.

    Trump is horrendous but easy to throw stones at because he lacks the ability to hide the egotistical, smarmy, sack of shit that he is. However, spineless turds like Cruz, Rubio, Desantis, et al are just as bad but in many ways more dangerous. Similarly, the Dems have their own growing stable of horribleness that is growing by the year. Neither of these parties cares about 70% of Americans. They only care about staying in power and to do so they pander to the worst elements of their base.

    Sure, the Dems are the lesser of two evils right now when compared to the Trumpublican clown car, but they are just a less organized, more fractured party with the same shit goal of staying in power at all costs.

    For the immediate future, in statewide or national elections, to paraphrase LBJ, cannot and will not vote for the candidate of either of these two parties.

    I hear Porto is lovely this time of year.

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  3. You can take a principled stand by voting for the random third party candidate to send a message to the two major parties that you think they suck (because I'm sure they will view it that way), or you can take a principled stand by voting for the Democrat to lessen the likelihood that their Republican opponent will win and subvert democracy.

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  4. I hoped that jobless rob (no-job rob?) would write breezier, more whimsical stuff than this.

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  5. rob needs a job!

    i have a lesser stomach-ache-- but equally as stressful. my younger son ian about to take the field in a tough state game-- if they lose it's the end of his high school soccer career! blech. i don't like this (although it will give me more time to pursue my professional pickleball aspirations)

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  6. Many bang-on points from both Rob and Tim. I'm no political or social savant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it plays out this way:

    As GOP gerrymanders and cements power at state and national levels, there will come a time when a court or legislature overturns an election result or mucks with voting and undesirable ballots. Howling and protests ensue. Some will get messy and perhaps violent.

    At that point, the GOP is able to change the narrative and say it's a law-and-order issue, not a voting rights or democracy issue. Dems and protesters will be portrayed as sore losers who don't abide by the rules and want to take the law into their own hands. The GOP always wins law-and-order arguments.

    A sizeable chunk of law enforcement is only too happy to flex muscle and smack down protesters. And a sizeable chunk of the populace will take stability and order over conflict about democracy. Then, we are well and rightly screwed.

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  7. timmy, i fully agree that the dems are in corporate pockets as deeply as the gop, but they really are the lesser of two evils at this moment in history. i'd far rather err on the side of corporatists than of anti-democracy. count me in z's camp.

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  8. We don’t have to play this game the way they want us to. Parties have gone away before as other have moved in to replace them. Groups have separated from parties for a while to fight against the prevailing party sentiment (not always for the best reasons - I’m looking at you Strom Thurmond and the racist fucking Dixiecrats). They will struggle to win but they can pull the parties back from the fringes.

    Let’s not kid ourselves that the Dems are much better. In states like IL, NY, & CA the Princeton University Gerrymander project rates the fairness of the districts as an F. https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card

    You can say this this is only being done in response to the naked abuse by republicans, and you may be right, but the cow is out of the barn. I understand the urge to engage in political whataboutism, especially when the Republicans are so bad. However, I’m not sure voting for the lesser of two evils actually does anything in the long term. It feels like the difference is between driving into a brick wall at 100 miles per hour vs. 80. Either way we are fucked. The only real option is not to drive with either one of these parties…or move to Portugal.

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  9. Well I don’t know much comprehensively re: politics, but here’s why I disagree with you, Marls, respectfully:
    1. The Dems are at least trying to keep healthcare choices for women more available mostly. And that matters. It should matter to us all, I’d argue.
    2. The Dems are trying to handle foreign policy differently including putting state dept. staff and officials in place that have been vacant since DT took office. It’s been woefully behind (some 30% or more of positions unfilled), and that matters for all kinds of reasons. Not the least of which is a war happening in Myanmar, an increased conflict (war!) in Ethiopia, horrible corruption in the DRC that’s been going on for years, and war in Ukraine, all of which have massive world implications. Think economies, climate change, refugee resettlement and immigration issues, etc etc.
    3. Social programs have more of a chance with Dems in place. As a person who works with incredibly vulnerable populations, having at least some chance of them not being cut completely from our entwined complex of economy/healthcare/services/education/etc., only seems possible with Dems elected.

    My 2 cents. Might be worth less.

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  10. I'm with Donna. And #1 "trumps" all. Certainly for anyone with daughters, which I have two. Who are AWESOME

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  11. Donna - I actually agree with you on most of the above, at least in part.

    1. I’m in favor of much broader access to healthcare, for women and men. It is in the top 3 structural imbalances that hurts vulnerable populations in the US and results in disparate impacts. The Dems had a chance to do this in Obama’s first term but shit the bed because of the corporatist arm are the party. As for Roe, it was a weak decision from day one but the Dems had 50 years to codify it but never could because elements of the party would not agree to certain restrictions that most Americans see as reasonable. That said, this is the exact reason why, as I noted above, I will still vote for Dems in local elections. Abortion is now with the states and I will vote to preserve those rights via our state legislature.

    2. Both parties suck at foreign policy, mostly because the far left and far right both want to turn inward. The progressive caucus’s forced retraction earlier this week of their demand that the the White House look to unilaterally negoti ate with Putin to end the war, is a great example. Undoubtably they are looking like Neville Chamberlain, to secure “peace in our time”. To me, the far left are no better than the tea party turned MAGA losers screaming about America first. They all suck, including the centrists on both sides who are still beholden to the military industrial complex that Ike tried to warn us about.

    3. I like most Americans (70%) support additional access to social programs The problem is that both sides use them as political footballs. You are correct that the republicans, despite wide ranging support even from their constituents, won’t/can’t vote for social programs out of fear of being labeled a RINO and getting primaries from the Right. However, we can’t just keep spending money the way we are. The inflation that is killing the most at risk members of our society is in no small part driven by unfathomable amout of cash we have pumped into the system over the last 12 years. We need smart revisions and updated to the safety net in this country that doesn’t bankrupt us or make things worse.

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  12. co-sign to everything Donna said

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  13. the people have spoken. they want me to post lots of political content during the winter of my content. it seems to spark the discourse. and i got to give the people what they want.

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  14. You will have no shortage of things to write about over the next few weeks.

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  15. Hey Marls,
    I find your words about foreign policy really interesting and compelling. The whole "military industrial complex" that drives our world is absolutely the bottom denominator for so much of our troubles. And I would add the way there are massive layers of conflict of interest with our current legislators and their economic pockets wrapped-up in that (private corp defense contractors with our gov't is just the tip of the iceberg!).

    My beef with the "spending money the way we are" suggests you see it as giving loads and loads to social programming that has to stop. We need revisions of that. Now, I'm not saying you're wrong. We do. Things should be done more smartly, less "pork" (administrative nightmares, staffing, the right hand doesn't talk to the left, etc etc), clearer processes, and all that, but I'd contend the problem is more what we spend the money on overall. Our defense budget is ludicrous. LUDICROUS. We're arming ourselves and have been for decades in ways that are insane. We green-light defense stuff, studies of studies on stuff that are superfluous and inane. We don't need hundreds of millions spent on such studies, let alone much of this stuff. Living in the mecca of military bases and strongholds and the shipyard that turns out the aircraft carriers, it's wacko (Whitney lives here, too, he knows). I'm all for supporting our military, the people who sign-up and we don't do enough for them when they're home -- I have serious issues with our treatment of vets, those living on ships that are nearly uninhabitable (which is happening right now down the street from me), and how scandals have been nearly as ubiquitous there (sexual misconduct, especially) as in the church (OMDL--God help us!) -- but a realignment of priorities on a national scale would certainly help us. At least that's how I see it. But I'm a bleeding heart liberal, so take my comments for what they're worth from that lens.

    Sorry to be so verbose. I'm avoiding. Lots of things. Not the least of which is my preparation for Sunday.
    Hey, World Series starts tonight. Who y'all rooting for?

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  16. Is Rob considering a run for office as a next act?

    I concur with most of the sentiments expressed above, including the fecklessness of Dems. But when you groom a sizeable subset of aggrieved and heavily armed people to be your foot soldiers, and shrug at any violent acts they commit on your behalf, I find it necessary to support the lesser evil.

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  17. pretty sure donna just called whitney wacko. which wouldn't be the first time.

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  18. arizona state at colorado on espnu tomorrow night at 730e. i expect you all to watch in hopes of seeing my baby buff on national television.

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  19. Donna, thank you for that super thoughtful response. I think we are on the same page with regard to social programs. I don’t think that we should be cutting spending on the social safety net. In fact we should probably increase it and provide greater access to healthcare. I’m the board chair of a food pantry in Fairfax county and we could not serve the growing need that we have without government support. To your point, we need to spend the money more wisely. We recently passed a 5 Trillion dollar package. People are really terrible at comprehending large numbers but pumping that much money into the system without considering the consequences or pulling back in other areas creates problems. Problems that our shitbag politicians on both sides of the aisle seem unequipped to manage.

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  20. Donna, you’re right as rain about DOD spending. And me being wacko. Government budgets are utter insanity; use it or lose it money (one year in DOL we had a massive tech overhaul and our budget skyrocketed… every year after we got the same amount if we could find ways to use it, which was total bullshit), do-nothing lifers who can’t be fired (though I did enjoy cocktails on the clock), etc. Social programs get the hardest scrutiny, and some deserve it. Military and other mainstream government agencies often dodge massive public watchdogging, and they can be the most egregious.

    And I dislike the Astros quite a bit. But I hate the Phillies with a bile-dredging passion. Go ‘stros.

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  21. I also hate the Phils. Go Houston.

    One other thing to add, I think it is important for us to consider the three part Republican plan for fighting inflation:

    1.
    2.
    3.

    Fuck all of these clowns.

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  22. Rootsy brought an impressive package to intramural wrestling

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  23. I’m glad to see the discourse here returning to normal.

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  24. got some whimsy for y'all in a new post

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