G:TB's Week 7 NFL Picks - Rut Ro, Raggy

Tennessee @ Kansas City (+8)

Brodie Croyle is the quintessential Alabama quarterback - white, floppy-haired, dating a cheerleader, moderately talented, completely incapable of carrying a team. And as much as I love Brodie Croyle, he's as unqualified to be an NFL starting quarterback as Sarah Palin is to be President. Much like Jay Barker before him and John Parker Wilson over the next 3-4 years, Croyle is nothing so much as the NFL QB equivalent of a fair catch. By starting Croyle, the Chiefs are giving up. They're focusing on not getting anyone injured, and living the 'discretion is the better part of valor' credo until they can draft a real signal-caller next Spring. Tennessee wins this game by a lot more than 8.

Detroit @ Houston (-8.5)
The Detroit Lions are Washington Nationals awful. There’s really no need to have a write up about this game, but, if you must… Detroit is 2nd to last in the NFL in both Rushing and Passing defense. They are starting a minor league hockey player named Dan Orlovsky at QB whose rating sits firmly at 59.6 through 4 games (and was seen gloriously running out of the back of the endzone during a scramble last week like he had no idea what the white lines meant around the field). And the team just traded their best offensive weapon on Tuesday (who they mysteriously stopped using over the past 2 years). This will be ugly…Houston 31, Lions 6.

Jets (-3) at Oakland
Much has been said about the sad state of Al Davis’ 2008 Oakland Raiders. Most of it is negative. And some of it is true. The owner is morphing into the host of Tales from the Crypt, the interim coach is a loser, the QB is fat, the defensive coordinator looks like an extra in Sons of Anarchy, the kicker is a date rapist, etc. On the field, the team has performed poorly, still waiting for its two young offensive prospects to get it going on the field. Unfortunately, this isn’t the week that McFadden and Russell will get their groove back. They will struggle against a surprisingly stout Jets defense that plays well against the run (giving up 69 yards per game on the ground - clicks) and gets at the quarterback (18 sacks in 5 games). Look for the Jets D to pressure Russell into a couple bad picks this week. G:TB predicts that Jets safety Kerry Rhodes will get his first INT of the year this week as he snares an errant 50 yard bomb that Russell uncorks. Oakland will show why they’ve only scored 81 points in five games this year.

The match-up between the Jets offense and the Raiders defense also tilts in New York’s favor. Oakland has given up at least 24 points in each of their four losses, though it came against some formidable foes (SD, Denver, New Orleans, Buffalo). And they’ve given up an average of 130 yards on the ground in those games. The Jets new and improved blocking contingent, bolstered by Alan Faneca and Tony Richardson, should be able to create openings for Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.

The recipe for Jets success is to be balanced enough that their 83 year old QB doesn’t have to break a hip trying to make plays. After an ugly win last week over Cincy last week, the Jets will be focused and ready to feast on the underbelly of their schedule (home against Cincy, at Oakland, home against KC, at Buffalo, home against St. Louis). The Jets will score enough and defend enough to walk away unscathed. Prediction: Jets cover, winning 23-14.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
The easiest money in the NFL is right here. Not in the actual game mind you, but in betting that the folks at NBC will show us an old team photo of the Packers featuring Jon Gruden and Mike Holgrem as Al Michaels discusses how much respect these two coaches have for one another. I swear to god, if I lived in Vegas I'd put my entire 401K on it. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're my septum) I don't live in Vegas so I'll have to find some other ways to make that extra cash we all so desperately need right now. In somewhat related news, John Madden won't be broadcasting this game as he says he's too worn out and needs a week off from, you know, sitting on a luxury bus, eating Bloomin' Onions and working for 5 hours a week. While this story certainly passes the smell test, I have it on good authority that Madden's not coming to Tampa because he curb stomped a stripper at Mons last time he was in town because Monte Kiffin dared him too. Monte's a bit of a sadist you see. Everybody always wonders why he's never approached for a head coaching job. Well, that's easy. He has a trunk full of dead hookers (and Shaun King...don't ask) buried in his backyard. Its a massive cover up and people all over Tampa are in on it but, honestly, things much worse than this happen in Tampa on a weekly basis (Don't believe me? Have TJ send you some of the articles he sends me each week). Anyway, as for this game, I'm a bit weary about taking the Bucs when they're giving up so many points but its a rare home night game and Seneca Wallace is starting for the first time since he teamed with Hiawatha Jones (seriously) in the backfield at Iowa State. Tampa's going to score at least one defensive touchdown and Jeff Garcia will be just efficient enough to score another TD or two. Frankly, I'd be surprised if the Seahawks break double digits. Take the Bucs.